Efforts are swirling around a vortex of deregistration of CHADEMA in a misplaced hope once CHADEMA is legally gone CCM will rule blissfully, uninterrupted and forever. This kind of “bile water” analysis is highly misconceived. Let me tell you: CCM needs CHADEMA in our political landscape more than CHADEMA needs CCM. Here is the analysis.
Once CHADEMA is deregistered, Tanzania opposition will go underworld, and nobody will be able to finetune its final product. Tanzania opposition is not yet militaristic because of the allures of multiparty democracy.
Like it or not, our cockeyed multiparty democracy despite its many low sides has kept this nation at peace with itself. Without it, international terrorists in particular Al- Shabab will have a very fertile recruiting ground! We need a working multiparty democracy to prevent international terrorists from operating inside our borders.
This discourse dives deep into the consequences of deregistration of CHADEMA. Here is my own foresight.
Twin efforts underway potentially to deregister CHADEMA.
The Registrar of Political Parties has shown his ferocious appetite to either undermine or deregister CHADEMA. Either he has received “hearsay” evidence and recklessly acted to remove illegally and by force duly elected leaders of CHADEMA. He has also stopped providing CHADEMA with her lawful subsidies matters of law. All these scatterguns are preemptive assaults heading towards deregistration of CHADEMA.
The Registrar of Political Parties deluded himself he was doing CCM a favour. What he didn’t know was that he was undermining CCM as will shortly be made abundantly clear.
On 10th June 2025 the High Court suspended CHADEMA from doing anything pending a complaint lodged before the Court. CHADEMA’s advocate pulled out of the court proceedings arguing the court is inherently biased.
Part of his argument, some of the complainants were members of the CHADEMA Board of Trustees who handle all finances. In every sense of the word, those disgruntled Members of the CHADEMA Board of Trustees were complaining against themselves which shouldn’t be permitted.
Moreover, under CHADEMA constitution disputes have internal mechanisms to resolve them. That channel of dispute resolution is yet to be given a chance to work. Therefore, the matter before the High Court was premature.
Moreover, even the Registrar of Political Parties office has not been informed and attempts to address the matter. The High Court didn’t address CHADEMA’s preliminary objections but proceeded to order CHADEMA’s operations be stopped pending hearing of the matter!
CHADEMA preliminaries went to the root of the jurisdiction of the High Court to entertain the matter, the Court assumed it had it without addressing the complaint. That led to CHADEMA’s advocate to walk out of the court, and now the matter will proceed ex-parte.
CHADEMA has lost faith in all the institutions of governance whether it is the judiciary or the office of the Registrar of Political Parties or the police or the INEC. This is very dangerous.
Once the most popular political party has lost faith with the institutions of governance the next stage is to deregister it. Once CHADEMA is out of the way will CCM finally find peace with God? I call it that since peace of mind is delusional. The mind never made anyone peaceful. Only God can.
Nature abhors vacuum therefore once CCM has successfully fumigated hers from this CHADEMA virus, who will fill the void left behind by CHADEMA? Will CHAUMMA do it? The answer to that must be in the negativity. Every voter perceives CHAUMMA is a CCM puppet and will never trust it to challenge CCM chokehold on power.
Why do Tanzanian youth hates CCM?
Tanzanian youth despises CCM because it is not serving them. CCM is now a vanguard party, it has its owners who are benefiting why most youth are picking the rotten end of the stick.
When it comes to jobs, our youth see nepotism is putting them away from government jobs. Amd, they never hide their rancour. This is what they say:
“…hizo kazi lazima uwe na godfather kwani zina macho…”
No youth will support CCM unless he too was benefiting. Nyerere’s CCM was popular because we felt we owned it but CCM of today has its owners and we are not one of them. Nyerere’s job allocation was fairer but these days jobs are filled by those with CCM etrenched tentacles.
CCM controlled parliament isn’t setting sufficient funds to bankroll new informal jobs since most of the money is squandered in paying national leaders, senior civil servants, buying money guzzling SUVs for leaders, paying hefty sitting allowances for MPs.
These days per sitting allowance for an MP is more than what the lowest civil servant is paid pee month. An MP collects Tshs 650, 000/= per day as sitting allowance but K.C.C[1] picks Tshs 500, 000/= per month! Waheshimiwa have turned the tables the national cake is eaten by very few, indeed.
This environment is what has deleted CCM in the hearts and minds of the electorate. Post Nyerere’s CCM is too avaricious, too self serving and too dependent on security forces to cling on power. All these dichotomous facts have nothing to do with CHADEMA.
What CCM is blaming her own unpopularity on CHADEMA but the real enemy is within. CCM of today is a den of very poor leadership. In order to survive in a very hostile political climate CCM should move away from externalization of her political plight, and acknowledge it must recreate herself as a fountain of quality leadership. It must restrain herself from distractions like deregistration of CHADEMA which really is a catharsis of CCM’s own internal woes.
Destruction of CHADEMA will provide fertile ground for emergence of Al-Shabab. Al-Shabab doesn’t need to do much is just to be patient amd wait CCM to cannibalise itself through killing CHADEMA. Then Tanzania youth, frustrated of denial of political space will find Al-Shabaab propaganda extremely appealing. CCM will wish to bring CHADEMA back, and even hand power to it peaceful but thay window of opportunity will be gone forever.
Mostly presidential appointees are sprouting palatial palaces in Masaki, Dar-es-Salaam!
Everybody sees presidential appointees take less than six months after appointment before buying land in Masaki and putting up palatial buildings.
It is a hallmark of unabated official graft. Income disparities are fuelling social tensions in Tanzania and CHADEMA is only cashing in on it but isn’t its source.
CCM is making a grave mistake to blame CHADEMA for her own leadership failures: an unaccountable electoral system is a breeding ground for thieves, looters, murderers and tormentors. Fix the election system you will fix thieving politicians
Conditions for International Terrorism to thrive in Tanzania exist.
In all countries grappling with international terrorists lack democratic space, national resources are accessed by top few, poverty and unemployment rates are excruciating very high.
All these symptoms prevail and persist in Tanzania. With CHADEMA out of the equation, the hopelessness will drive the majority of the youth to join Al-Shabab and we will never control bloodshed that will stain our lands. Vicious cycles of violence will never secure “miafaka[2] ”. The barrel of gun will settle these battles of supremacy.
Those who reiterate Tanzania is different don’t know what they are talking about!
Tanzania peace didn’t come on a silver platter. It was earned through sacrifice and moderation. You can’t continuously apportion the lionshare of the national cake, and expect the peace will be sustained. It never works like that. If we invest in peace it means eating less and sharing more with those who are disadvantaged.
Funnelling election violence is counterproductive.
CHADEMA alleges CCM is funding election violence against its own meetings, aiming to show CHADEMA is sponsoring political violence. It is part of a long stratagem of deregistration. Sudan civil war has important lessons for CCM.
The defacto leader of Sudanese opposition, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), was a victim of injustices. He took firearms initially to protect himself but later to pay his militias he embarked on mass killings of Sudanese blacks with help from Sudanese junta led by then General Omar Hassan Ahmad al-Bashir.
After Dagalo deploying his Janjaweed militias to confiscate Black’s arable lands and livestock and fund his militias he scaled taming over the whole country. Violence breeds more violence, it is a scary message even to cogitate amd contemplate.
Civil wars in the west Africa covering Niger, Chadi, Mali, Burkina Faso among others have a long history of military juntas and maldistribution of national resources. Al-Qaida has stepped in to uproot corruption and restore orderliness. Whether that is true or not is irrelevant but what counts is they are excelling in manpower mobilization.
And, Al-Shabaab is looking forward to cash in the vacuum CHADEMA is about to leave behind.
If you can’t handle CHADEMA prepare to accost Al- Shabab!
The characterization of CHADEMA’s deregistration as a “Christmas gift to Al-Shabab” is a metaphorical and provocative statement; highlighting a perceived strategic benefit to extremist groups like Al-Shabab. Here’s the reasoning behind this argument:
1. Undermining Democratic Resilience:
A vibrant, multi-party democracy with a strong opposition is seen as a pillar of societal resilience against extremism. When legitimate political channels for dissent and peaceful change are restricted (e.g., by deregistering a major opposition party such as CHADEMA.), it:
* Frustrates Citizens:
Creates disillusionment, especially among the youth and supporters of the banned party, who feel their voices are silenced.
* Erodes Trust:
Weakens public trust in state institutions and the rule of law.
* Creates Vacuum:
Leaves populations feeling politically marginalized and voiceless.
2. Exploitation by Extremists:
Groups like Al-Shabab thrive in environments of:
* Grievance:
They exploit political marginalization and frustration as a recruitment tool, offering an alternative (albeit violent) path for those who feel excluded.
* Instability:
Internal political tensions and weakened governance can distract state security services and create opportunities for extremist infiltration or operations.
* Legitimacy Narratives:
They can frame the government as authoritarian and illegitimate, positioning themselves (falsely) as defenders of the oppressed.
3. Regional Security Context:
Tanzania is part of a region significantly threatened by Al-Shabab:
* It borders Mozambique, which faces an ISIS-Mozambique insurgency.
* It borders the DR Congo, facing multiple insurgencies.
* Al-Shabab has demonstrated reach beyond Somalia, including attacks in Kenya and Uganda, and attempts to recruit across East Africa.
* A stable, united, and democratically robust Tanzania is crucial for regional security cooperation against these threats. Internal political turmoil weakens this front.
4. Diverting Focus and Resources:
Political crackdowns often require significant state security resources to manage domestic unrest and protests. This can potentially divert attention, intelligence gathering, and military/police resources away from monitoring and countering transnational terrorist threats like Al-Shabab.
5. Damaging International Standing and Cooperation:
Actions perceived as undermining democracy can strain relationships with key international partners who provide critical counter-terrorism assistance, intelligence sharing, and development aid aimed at addressing root causes of extremism.
In essence, the argument is:
By deregistering CHADEMA and suppressing legitimate opposition, the Tanzanian government risks:
* Creating fertile ground for radicalization among disaffected citizens.
* Weakening internal cohesion and stability, making the country potentially more vulnerable to exploitation by extremist elements.
* Distracting and straining security resources needed to counter external threats like Al-Shabab.
* Damaging regional counter-terrorism cooperation.
Therefore, the title of this article claims that this action, intentionally or not, serves the interests of Al-Shabab by potentially destabilizing a key regional player and creating conditions more conducive to the spread of violent extremism.
Important Caveats:
* This is a perspective or argument, not a statement of proven fact. It highlights a potential strategic consequence.
* The Tanzanian government would likely argue that its actions are about upholding the law and maintaining stability, and that it remains fully committed to countering terrorism regardless of domestic political processes.
* The direct operational links between a specific political deregistration and an Al-Shabab infestation are complex and difficult to prove.
However, the core logic connecting the suppression of democratic space to increased vulnerability to extremism is a well-established concern in security studies and international relations, making the “Christmas gift” metaphor a pointed criticism of the deregistration’s potential long-term consequences.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
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