Trump believes he has leverage against BRICS. That leverage is tariffs to whiplash them towards the sustenance of the American global hegemony, at least in economics, finances and military. Will he prevail?
Based on the provided information, here’s a clear summary of the situation and China’s position:
1. Trump’s Threat (July 6):
Former President Donald Trump threatened on Truth Social to impose a new 10% tariff on *all* imports from *any* country that aligns itself with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” He stated there would be “no exceptions.”
2. China’s Response (July 7):
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning directly addressed Trump’s comments and the nature of BRICS:
* BRICS’ Purpose:
Mao Ning stated BRICS is “an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets in developing countries.”
* Non-Confrontational:
She emphasized that BRICS “advocates openness, inclusiveness, and willing cooperation,” adding it is “not a bloc for confrontation, nor does it target any country.”
* Criticism of Tariffs:
On the specific threat of US tariff hikes (reiterating a long-standing Chinese position), she stated: “Trade wars and tariff wars have no winners, and protectionism leads nowhere.”
**Key Takeaways:**
* China’s Rejection of Trump’s Characterization:
China firmly denies that BRICS is an “Anti-American” bloc or seeks confrontation. It portrays BRICS purely as a cooperative platform for developing economies.
* Defense of BRICS:
China is defending the purpose and legitimacy of the BRICS grouping in response to Trump’s threat to target its members and allies.
* Opposition to Tariffs:
China reiterates its strong opposition to unilateral tariffs and trade wars, arguing they are detrimental to all parties involved.
* Geopolitical Tension:
The exchange highlights ongoing geopolitical friction, with Trump framing alignment with BRICS as inherently anti-American and China pushing back against that narrative and the proposed punitive measure.
In essence:
China has countered Trump’s threat by asserting that BRICS is a cooperative, non-confrontational group that doesn’t target any country, including the US. It condemned the proposed tariffs as harmful protectionism.
What will be the impact of Trump’s punitive tariffs on BRICS?
The potential impact of Trump’s threatened tariffs on BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and newer members like Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Indonesia, and Saudi Arabia) involves a complex interplay of economic resilience, geopolitical cohesion, and global trade dynamics. Based on current developments and expert analyses, here’s a structured assessment:
⚖️ 1. Immediate Economic Impact on BRICS Members.
– Targeted Vulnerabilities:
The additional 10% tariff would apply to all imports from countries deemed to support “anti-American policies” of BRICS. This could disproportionately affect:
– Export-dependent economies:
Vietnam (a BRICS partner) faces 20–40% tariffs on transshipped goods, while Indonesia and UAE rely heavily on U.S. markets for oil and manufactured goods.
– Debt-burdened members:
Egypt and Ethiopia, with high external debt, could face currency instability and reduced FDI if tariffs shrink export revenues.
– Resilient Members:
China and Russia, already subject to high U.S. tariffs (30% and up), may absorb the shock through non-U.S. trade diversification. China’s dominance in rare earths (accounting for 75% of global supply) also provides leverage.
💠 2. Cohesion and Strategic Response of BRICS.
– Internal Divisions:
BRICS lacks a unified trade or defence policy. Members like India and UAE maintain strong bilateral ties with the U.S. and are negotiating separate trade deals. South Africa explicitly stated it is “not anti-American“.
– Countermeasures:
– De-dollarization:
BRICS is advancing local currency settlements for trade, reducing dollar reliance. A cross-border payments system was endorsed at the 2025 summit.
– Institutional Strength:
The New Development Bank ($39B in projects) and expansion to 11 members (45+ applicants) could enhance internal investment buffers.
– Diplomatic Pushback:
The group’s joint declaration condemned “unilateral tariffs” as WTO-violative, signalling collective opposition but no concrete retaliation plan.
🌐 3. U.S. Strategy and Global Repercussions.
– Leverage and Limits:
Trump aims to fragment BRICS by threatening “no exceptions” tariffs, exploiting economic disparities between members. However:
– Inflation Risks:
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed tariff-induced inflation, but economists like Larry Summers warn of higher consumer costs and reduced competitiveness.
– Deadline Pressures:
The delayed tariff implementation to August 1 allows deal-making. Deals with the UK, Vietnam, and China (partial) show a pattern of leveraging threats for bilateral concessions.
– Market Reactions:
Global stocks dipped modestly on the news (e.g., Hang Seng -0.23%, FTSE 100 -0.1%) , reflecting caution but not panic.
⚡ 4. Can Tariffs “Sabotage” BRICS?
– Short-Term Disruption:
Tariffs could strain weaker BRICS economies (e.g., Ethiopia, Iran) and deter new members, slowing integration.
– Long-Term Resilience:
– BRICS controls 40% of global oil, 39% of world GDP, and 75% of rare earths, enabling internal resource pooling.
– Anti-tariff solidarity may accelerate de-dollarization and trade frameworks outside U.S. influence.
– Key Vulnerability:
A unified BRICS currency—previously threatened with 100% tariffs by Trump —remains theoretical. Without this, tariffs may irritate but not cripple the bloc.
💎 Conclusion.
Trump’s tariffs are more likely to “fragment and pressure BRICS than sabotage it entirely”. While economically damaging to some members, they could inadvertently strengthen intra-BRICS cooperation and accelerate alternatives to the U.S.-centric systems.
Success depends on whether BRICS can overcome internal divisions to deploy its collective economic weight—a challenge amid competing national interests. The August 1 tariff implementation will be a critical test of cohesion.
Does the US have any Leverage on BRICS?
Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs targeting BRICS-related countries include several distinct layers, each with specific conditions and implications:
⚠️ 1. New 10% “Alignment Tariff.
– Trigger:
Imposed on any country “aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS.” The term “Anti-American policies” remains undefined, creating broad applicability.
– Scope:
Applies universally with “no exceptions,” potentially affecting all 11 BRICS members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia) and strategic partners like Vietnam or Thailand.
– Timing:
Threatened alongside Trump’s broader tariff letters sent starting July 7, with enforcement from August 1.
💰 2. Existing Differential Tariffs.
– China:
Already faces 30% baseline tariffs under a “partial deal” (reduced from 145%).
– Russia:
Subject to even higher tariffs due to separate sanctions, though exact rates are unspecified.
– Other BRICS members:
Could revert to April’s proposed rates (e.g., 50% for the EU, 30–35% for Japan) if bilateral deals fail by August 1 . Newer members like Ethiopia or Iran might default to the 10% baseline.
☢️ 3. Previous 100% “Currency Tariff” Threat.
– Trigger:
Contingent on BRICS creating a shared currency to rival the U.S. dollar. Trump explicitly warned in 2024 that such a move would result in 100% tariffs.
– Status:
BRICS has not implemented a common currency but endorsed cross-border payment initiatives, keeping this threat latent.
⏳ 4. Contextual Factors.
– Deadlines:
The broader U.S. tariff pause expired July 9, but higher rates were deferred to August 1 for non-deal countries.
– Ambiguity:
“Anti-American policies” could encompass BRICS’ criticism of U.S. tariffs, de-dollarization efforts, or reform of IMF/WTO structures.
– Diplomatic Tensions:
BRICS members (e.g., China and South Africa) reject the “anti-American” label, framing the group as cooperative and non-confrontational.
💎 Key Implications.
– Economic Fragmentation:
The 10% tariff could strain export-dependent BRICS economies (e.g., UAE’s oil, Indonesia’s manufacturing) but accelerate internal trade using local currencies.
– Strategic Leverage:
Trump aims to splinter BRICS by pressuring U.S.-aligned members (e.g., India and Saudi Arabia) into bilateral deals.
– Global Uncertainty:
Markets reacted mildly (e.g., Hang Seng -0.23%), but prolonged tariffs risk inflation and supply-chain disruptions.
Summary Table of Tariff Threats Against BRICS.
| No. | Tariff Type. | Rate. | Trigger Condition. | Status. |
| 1.0 | Alignment Tariff. | +10%. | Supporting “Anti-American” BRICS policies. | Threatened, pending. |
| 2.0 | Currency Tariff. | 100%. | Creating a BRICS rival currency. | Dormant. |
| 3.0 | Country-Specific Rates. | Dormant. | Active negotiations. | Active negotiations. |
These tariffs represent a multi-pronged pressure campaign, exploiting BRICS’ internal diversity to undermine collective economic influence while advancing U.S. unilateral trade goals.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
