Political will in Tanzania often feels like the rains in Dar es Salaam – sudden, heavy, and full of promise, yet gone almost as quickly as they arrive. Each election cycle brings downpours of commitments: new constitutions, LNG deals concluded “before campaigns start,” tax reforms to expand revenue, or sweeping pledges of good governance. But when the electoral season passes, the urgency fades, and the commitments evaporate.
This rhythm is familiar. Leaders speak of “wananchi wangu,” showering them with promises when votes are near. But had they been speaking of raia wangu, the equation would be different. Citizens would not wait for promises; they would demand delivery, institutionalizing reforms beyond the whims of politics. The problem is not just unmet expectations, but the fragile nature of political will itself.
Political Will as a Mirage
Political will is celebrated as the golden key to reform. Yet in practice, it often functions like a mirage, visible at a distance, attractive from afar, but elusive upon approach. In Tanzania, significant reforms have repeatedly been framed around politically expedient deadlines.
The constitutional review process is one example. Successive governments have promised a people-driven constitution; yet, the process has been tied to political timetables rather than a sustained national consensus. Each round of momentum rises in the lead-up to elections, then stalls once political priorities shift.
The LNG negotiations provide another case. Deadlines were set and reset, often with rhetoric that the deal would be signed before the campaign season. For leaders, this was a way of projecting delivery to wananchi. Yet the pattern of missed deadlines exposed the hollowness of political will that is tethered to campaign cycles rather than institutional commitment.
This cyclical dynamic, which promises swelling before elections and then shrinking afterward, reduces political will to an electoral tactic. Like the rains, it drenches the ground briefly, but leaves little lasting nourishment.
Wananchi Logic vs. Raia Logic
The fragility of political will is not just a matter of leadership. It is also a reflection of the political culture between rulers and the ruled. When people are treated as wananchi, promises suffice. Handouts, slogans, and symbolic deadlines can secure loyalty. Wananchi wait for pledges and rewards; they are mobilized but not empowered.
In the logic of wananchi, willpower can be short-term. A sugar delivery before elections, a road inauguration during campaigns, or the launch of a flashy project are all enough to sustain the bond. The ruler provides, the subject obeys.
But when people become raia, the logic changes. Raia are not satisfied with promises; they demand results. They expect continuity, not just campaigns. They measure leaders by their delivery, not their declarations. As one sharp line captured it: “Wananchi husubiri ahadi; raia hudai matokeo.” Subjects wait for promises; citizens demand results.
The transformation from wananchi to raia thus destabilizes the old model of political will. It forces leaders to shift from symbolic gestures to structural reforms, from short bursts of energy to sustained accountability. Political will is fragile in Tanzania precisely because leaders are accustomed to governing wananchi, not leading raia.
Institutional Weakness and Personal Rule
A deeper reason for the fragility of political will lies in the weakness of institutions. In Tanzania, as in much of Africa, governance is heavily personalized. Reforms advance or collapse depending on the priorities of individual leaders. Without strong institutions, political will is a fleeting mood rather than a durable force.
Parliament, courts, regulatory bodies, and oversight agencies often lack the independence or resources to sustain reforms that align with the executive’s long-term interests. A president may push for fiscal reforms, but if the bureaucracy is not empowered, momentum is lost once the leader shifts focus. An administration may champion transparency, but without institutional safeguards, accountability dissolves with a change in leadership.
This reliance on personal rule is why reforms often fade after leaders leave office. It is also why many promises usually fail to outlast campaign cycles. Political will is concentrated in personalities, not embedded in laws or systems. Citizens are left vulnerable to the volatility of leadership moods rather than protected by institutionalized accountability.
Until Tanzania builds institutions that anchor reforms, political will will remain like rain on hot soil, a downpour that disappears without soaking in deeply.
Comparative Lessons
Tanzania’s struggles with fragile political will are not unique; they echo across the continent and beyond.
Kenya’s Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) is a striking example. Launched with great fanfare in 2018, it promised constitutional reforms to address ethnic tensions, corruption, and electoral injustice. Yet, because the initiative was tethered to individual leaders’ ambitions rather than a broad institutional consensus, it collapsed when the political winds shifted. The lesson is clear: when reforms rely on personalities, they crumble with those personalities.
South Africa provides another cautionary tale. The early years of democracy were marked by a strong political will to dismantle apartheid’s legacy. Yet institutional weaknesses, a parliament dominated by one party, a judiciary under political pressure, and oversight bodies prone to capture eroded that momentum. When political will faltered, corruption flourished. Citizens, once hopeful raia, grew disillusioned, watching as governance slipped back into patronage.
By contrast, Western democracies show the value of institutionalized will. In the United States, debates over taxation and civil rights were not resolved by a single leader’s passion. Still, by institutions, including Congress, courts, and states, that could carry reforms forward beyond any presidency. In Europe, centuries of struggle over “who controls taxation” produced parliamentary systems that ensure promises are not easily withdrawn once given.
The comparative insight is blunt: political will is fragile everywhere, but it becomes enduring when institutionalized. Without strong institutions, even the most passionate promises turn to dust.
Tanzania’s Risk and Opportunity
Tanzania now faces a familiar dilemma. Projects such as the LNG plant, constitutional reform, or even the execution of Vision 2050 risk becoming cycles of postponed deadlines and shifting commitments. As long as promises are pegged to electoral timetables, they will continue to evaporate with the end of campaigns.
The risk is twofold:
- Disillusionment among citizens. As wananchi evolve into raia, tolerance for broken promises diminishes. Citizens who pay direct taxes, use digital tools, and engage with governance will not quietly accept symbolic pledges.
- Instability. When expectations rise but delivery falters, frustration can spark unrest. The warning remains relevant: “Wimbi la mapinduzi hutokea pale wananchi wanapogeuka raia na watawala hawajatambua.” Revolts occur when rulers fail to recognize that their subjects have become citizens.
Yet this risk also contains opportunity. If Tanzania shifts from relying on the “moods” of political will to the permanence of institutional will, reforms can outlast electoral cycles. By embedding accountability in systems through stronger parliaments, judiciaries, and oversight bodies, the nation can transform temporary promises into lasting progress.
Towards Institutional Will
The path forward requires reimagining the concept of political will itself. Instead of celebrating the charisma of leaders or the urgency of campaign-season promises, Tanzania must cultivate the institutional will and the ability of systems to sustain reforms beyond the personalities of individual leaders.
Four shifts are crucial:
- Redefine Political Will: It should not mean a leader’s declaration, but a state’s legal and institutional commitment to act.
- Strengthen Checks and Balances: Parliament must scrutinize, not rubber-stamp; courts must enforce, not evade; oversight agencies must investigate, not appease.
- Bind Promises to Law: Major reforms, from LNG contracts to constitutional changes, should be codified in ways that cannot be undone by electoral cycles.
- Cultivate a Raia Mindset: Ultimately, institutions respond to the citizens they serve. When Tanzanians demand accountability as raia, leaders will have no choice but to institutionalize their commitments.
The transition from wananchi to raia thus underpins the move from fragile political will to durable institutional will.
Political will is celebrated, but it is fragile. It swells before elections and shrinks after. It dazzles with promises but struggles to deliver continuity. Like rain on hot soil, it moistens the surface but rarely penetrates deeply.
Tanzania cannot build its future on such fragility. The era of wananchi politics, where promises suffice, is coming to an end. The age of raia politics, where delivery is demanded, is dawning. To meet this shift, the country must embed its ambitions in institutions, not individuals.
As one timeless observation reminds us: “Wananchi husubiri ahadi; raia hudai matokeo.” Subjects wait for promises; citizens demand results.
To govern Tanzania into the future is to accept the more challenging path: not ruling wananchi, but leading raia.