If this happens, it is gonna be a political earthquake long in the making. It all started with Ndugai’s speech, which on the surface looked harmless, but once a number of factors were taken into account, Ndugai’s future in CCM’s top leadership became untenable. Now the question mark is: will national politics outmuscle him in local politics? It is a question that CCM primaries in Kongwa constituency will shed some answers very soon.
For right reasons or not, Ndugai is one of the most conspicuous sacrificial lambs of the succession politics of former President Magufuli. We were not there, so whatever we speak is based on hearsay, and we know hearsay most of the time is laced with personal wishes. It’s so distorted that it is pointless to work on it.
Somehow, Ndugai was perceived as belonging to a cabal that didn’t consider constitutional imperatives of presidential succession. It is that perception that was used to determine the intent of Ndugai’s dissing of foreign borrowing and the implications of national debt.
Ndugai’s viewpoint was that borrowing was a form of neocolonialism. He urged his audience to embrace “heavy domestic taxation” as a means to avoid external borrowing. In his own words, this is what he said:
“… hata hili jambo la tozo, kwa mfano. Watu wengi wametulaumu sana. Lakini fikiria ninyi ndiyo wasomi, (he waves his finger to his audience, stressing a point).
Juzi mama, ameenda kukopa one billion point three. Deni….Ma tuna majengo hivi sasa ya madarasa, (he makes a cycle with his finger to elaborate his point.)
…na vituo vya afya ambavyo vinajengwa kwa tozo. Hivi ni ipi bora kwa sisi watanzania ambao ni miaka 62 ya uhuru, kuendelea kukopa madeni? Au tubanane banane hapa hapa tujenge wenyewe bila madeni haya makubwa makubwa?
Ni lini sisi tutafanya wenyewe? And, how? Tutembeze bakuli ndiyo heshima? Tutakopa tunapiga makofi (he claps his hands…)
Sisi wakukopa kila siku? Tukasema shusha tozo. Anayetaka, asiyetaka pitisha tozo.
Lazima tuanze kujenga wenyewe. Nani atatufanyia? Yuko wapi huyo mjomba? Tukapitisha. Sasa 2025 itaamua. Ikitoa waliopo sawa waje ambao kazi yao itakuwa kwenda kukopa.
Endapo ndiyo njia ya ku-run nchi. Hivi sasa deni letu no seventy trillion…is that healthy?
Kuna siku nchi itapigwa mnada hii. Madeni, madeni, madeni….bajeti yetu trillion thelathini….kumi katika hizo tunalipa madeni.
Ten trillion, tumeenda kukopa one point three ma tunapiga makofi. ( he claps his hands)
Tunawapa wazungu ten trillion na riba juu….anachukua hela yako na anakurudishia kidogo. Unashangilia heee yeeee…” (more clapping with the back of his hands.)
Toza fanya hivi…tujitegemee, tusimame wenyewe. Kuna ubaya gani?” End of quotation.
In a matter of days, President Samia Suluhu Hassan lodged her own riposte against the then speaker of the House, Ndugai. This is what she said:
“….katibu mkuu alisema ukimwona adui wako anapiga kelele ujue labda umemshika pabaya au nini. Sasa nisingeshangaa kama adui yangu angepiga kelele.
Na hapa inanikumbusha hadithi moja, kuna mtu mmoja wiseman wa makamo, nilipotwisha huu mzigo alinitafuta ma kuniamba: “mama nimekuja kukupa hongera, lakini pole.”
Akanipa mawaidha mengi mwishowe akaniambia atakayekusumbua kwenye kazi yako na uongozi wako siyo wapinzani ila ni wa shati la kijani mwenzio na wala siyo mpinzani.
Huyu ndiye atakayekusumbua. Mpinzani atakutazama unafanya nini ukimaliza khoja zao hawana maneno. Lakini shati la kijani mwenzio, anayetizama mbele mwaka 2025, 2030 huyu ndiye atakayekusumbua.
Ninataka kuwaambia ndicho kinachotokea. Ndicho kinachotokea. Kwa sababu huwezi kufikiria mtu mliyemwamini, mshika mhimili aende akasimame aseme hivyo.
Ni stress ya 2025. Lakini jingine ni kwamba wakati mmenikabidhi huu mzigo, tulianza kusikia lugha zinasema serikali ya mpito, serikali ya mpito, bungeni huko kwa akina Kassim.
serikali ya mpito, serikali ya mpito, serikali ya mpito..nikarudi kwenye katiba kuangalia serikali ya mpito imeandikwa wapi?
Ilitokea nini kuna kuwa ma serikali ya mpito sikuona. Nikasema aaahaaa, okay, hebu twendeni. Lakini watu wakatizama mtu aliyeshika kitabu kuapa wakamfanyia tathmini, wakamfanyia yote waliyoyafanya wakampa grade yake wakamweka pale.
Sasa yanayotokea hawaamini yule mtu waliyempa ile thamani ndiyo anayeyafanya. Hawaamini. na kwa maana hiyo, hiyo hamu yao na matumaini yao na tamanio lao la 2025 somehow tamaa zinaondoka. (Loud applause)
Ndiyo, Ndiyo, (standing ovation while singing: “..tuna imani ma Samia…hoya, hoya, hoya….)
Tanzania hoyeeee (she retorted…)
Jamani huo wimbo unatukumbusha mbali. Wale wakongwe wenzangu kwenye CCM mtaukumbuka. Unatukumbusha mbali. Ndugu zangu ndicho kinachotokea. Kwa sababu, huwezi kuamini mtu mzima na akili yako, unaenda kuargue tozo na mkopo wa one point three trillion.
As if ndiyo imetokea kwanza Tanzania. Wakati tumepata uhuru ni mikopo kwenda mbele. Na katika mikopo yote huu no mkopo mzuri kuliko yote ever. Eeeh (more applause).
Mtu na akili yake anaenda anargue ni uhuru wake kusema chochote lakini mtu mnaye mtegemea, mtu ambaye mna matumaini naye kushirikiana naye kwenye safari ya maendeleo kutegemea atasema hivyo.
Ungemtegemea awe na uelewa. Hasa kwa sababu taarifa zote za mikopo yote za kiuchumi ndani ya nyumba yake inapita. Lakini ni 2025 fever wasameheni.
Wasameheni, nalo taka kuwaambia nyie na ndugu wananchi, nitajitahidi kadri nitakavyoweza fursa nitakayoiona itakayoletwa kutoka duniani ambayo ninaweza kuiletea mandeleo Tanzania nitaitumia. (wild applause).
Na nifanya hivi kwa kuwa niliapa kwa Mwenyezi Mungu nitaitumikia Tanzania wala sifanyi hivi kwa uchaguzi wa 2025.
Ningeanza kuchacharika 2023, na 2024 na 2025 na ningewaambia mmeona nilivyofanya?
Nimeanza sasa hivi miezi sita baada ya kuingia madarakani. Na 25 iko mbali. Kawaida ya mwananchi, kawaida ya mwanadamu kukaribisha sasa hivi kula ukisha mnawisha mkono kisha sahau. Hiyo ndiyo kawaida ya mwanadamu.
Kwa hyo haya yanayofanyika sasa 2925 watu wamekwisha kusahau. Mpaka tuanze kuwakumbusha huyu ndiye aliyeleta pesaro zikajenga mpaka koo zinakauka mnawakumbusha wananchi.
Hivyo sifanyi kwa ajili ya 2025. Nafanya nimeamua kuleta maendeleo kwa watanzania. Na wenzangu mnaonisaidia nanyi msimame hivyo. Baadhi yenu hamko hivyo.
Baadhi yenu mmekwisha kujitia kwenye makundi huko. Hamsemi. Wenyeviti baadhi yenu nanyi mko huko.
Mko? Tunachotazama sasa ni maendeleo kwa watanzania.” End of quotation.
Golden Takeaways:
- While former House Speaker Job Ndugai’s remarks were hypocritical, they were not treasonous. He only advocated for citizens to bear more burden without leadership cutting down their perks.
- President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s judgment was clouded with precipitous transition politics, and she couldn’t see the big picture: Ndugai wasn’t essentially opposing her but was advocating for a heavier taxation regime to alleviate overdependence on borrowing.
- After perceiving Ndugai was a threat, president Samia proceeded to eliminate that threat in Ndugai albeit the latter was nowhere near amounting a challenge to her. Paranoia more than reality was behind taking down Ndugai from his speakership.
Valuable Observations.
The political downfall of former Tanzanian National Assembly Speaker Job Ndugai represents a complex interplay of policy disagreements, succession politics, and institutional power dynamics within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM). Below is a thorough analysis of the key events, their implications, and the underlying forces at play:
⚖️ 1. The Debt Controversy: Catalyst for Conflict.
– Ndugai’s Critique:
In December 2021, Ndugai publicly criticized Tanzania’s reliance on foreign borrowing, warning that the national debt (then ~$30 billion) risked “auctioning off” the country. He advocated for “heavy domestic taxation” as an alternative to reduce external dependency.
– Samia’s Rebuttal:
President Samia Suluhu Hassan swiftly rejected this stance, defending borrowing as essential for infrastructure projects (e.g., Standard Gauge Railway, Julius Nyerere Hydropower). She framed Ndugai’s comments as economically naive and politically destabilising, emphasising that “even developed nations borrow“.
– IMF Context:
The IMF had recently elevated Tanzania’s debt distress risk to “moderate” due to pandemic-induced tourism losses, adding credibility to Ndugai’s concerns.
🏛️ 2. Succession Politics and the “Interim Government“
Perception.
– Samia’s Accusation:
In her response, Samia linked Ndugai’s criticism to “2025 election stress” and factionalism within CCM. She insinuated that he represented a disloyal “green shirt” (party insider) undermining her leadership, contrasting with “opponents” who openly dissent.
– Constitutional Tensions:
Ndugai’s remarks came amid whispers of Samia leading an “interim government” following President Magufuli’s death—a label she rejected as unconstitutional. His debt critique was interpreted as a challenge to her legitimacy.
– Resignation Pressure:
Facing intense party pressure, Ndugai resigned on January 6, 2022, citing “national and party interests.” His apology was publicly dismissed by Samia, confirming his untenable position.
📊 3. The Tax Reform Paradox: Ndugai’s Unheeded Advice.
Ironically, Samia later embraced tax reforms mirroring Ndugai’s advocacy:
– 2023–2025 Reforms:
Samia launched a commission to overhaul Tanzania’s tax system, citing the need to broaden the tax base (only 2M of 60M citizens paid taxes), reduce complexity, and integrate the informal sector.
– Policy Shift:
She directed the Tanzania Revenue Authority (TRA) to adopt “friendly” collection methods, condemning aggressive tactics like asset seizures.
– Contradiction:
While Samia implemented Ndugai’s core policy idea (self-reliance via taxation), his removal silenced internal debate on borrowing—a move critics saw as prioritizing control over constructive dissent.
⚔️ 4. Local vs. National Politics: Kongwa Constituency Battleground.
– Pre-Resignation Troubles:
Before the debt controversy, Ndugai faced scandals in his Kongwa constituency, including a physical altercation with a CCM primary opponent (Dr. Joseph Chilongani) during nomination campaigns.
– 2025 Primaries Challenge:
With CCM primaries approaching, Ndugai risks being “elbowed out” by rivals like Deus Seif. His national resignation weakened local influence, making him vulnerable to party machinery aligned with Samia. Ndugai is also braving “incumbency fatigue” after serving Kongwa constituency for 25 consecutive years. It is a political issue facing almost all long serving MPs.
🔍 5. The “Sacrificial Lamb” Narrative: Paranoia or Realpolitik?
– Perceived Threat:
Ndugai was viewed as part of a Magufuli-era “cabal” skeptical of Samia’s succession. His debt remarks, though hypocritical (he ignored Magufuli’s borrowing), were weaponized to eliminate a symbolic threat.
– Institutional Implications:
His resignation eroded parliamentary autonomy, reinforcing executive dominance. As opposition leader Tundu Lissu noted, it confirmed Tanzania has “only one state pillar: the presidency“.
💎 Conclusion: A Political Earthquake in Motion.
Ndugai’s downfall exemplifies CCM’s internal rigidity under Samia. While his policy concerns about debt were later validated by her tax reforms, his removal served immediate political goals: consolidating executive authority and quelling succession tensions. The Kongwa primaries will test whether local loyalty can override national marginalization—but for now, Ndugai remains a cautionary tale of dissent within CCM’s ranks.
> “The green shirt (insider) is the one who will hassle you, not the opponent.” — Samia Suluhu Hassan, 2022 .
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
