In my previous article, I got an accusing comment on the trade dispute between Tanzania versus Malawi and South Africa for siding with the latter rather than the former. My accuser, Claude Henry, concluded that Malawi and South Africa have been bullying us for years, and now the tables have been turned. He rested his case with plaudits for our minister for agriculture, Mohammed Bashe.
Since my response to the comment was sparingly sufficient, I promised him to elaborate further in this article on the issue of leverage in this trade dispute. Yes, leverage because it defines who has power if we are ever to establish who is bullying who. This article asserts Tanzania is in a precarious situation and cannot afford to lose the Malawi and South Africa markets. Here we go.
What Malawians are saying.
There is a missive from one Malawian who also praised his own Trade Minister for standing up against Tanzania’s bullying tactics. The article bitterly complained: Tanzania Is a Bully—Let’s Rally Behind Vitumbiko Mumba and Stand for Malawi. It was written in nyasatimes.com on April 24, 2025.
The writer, Henry Kalipano, a Malawian, piece is hereby reproduced:
“What Tanzania is doing is nothing short of diplomatic thuggery. At a time when Malawi is battling one of the worst foreign exchange and trade crises in recent history, the last thing we expect is hostility from our neighbours—especially from a country that calls itself a brother. But here we are, watching Tanzania flex its muscles, not in support but in sabotage of Malawi’s struggle to survive and rise.
Let’s be honest: Tanzania is not acting like a friend. It’s acting like a predator. This is economic bullying, plain and simple. Malawi is not fighting Tanzania, but Tanzania is behaving the way we do. Why? Because they’re not interested in cooperation. They’re interested in control.
This is the same playbook used by the West—America and Europe—when they want to keep smaller nations down.
They use influence, resources, and proximity to stifle growth, frustrate sovereignty, and bully nations into submission. Tanzania has learned well, and they’re now using the same tactics on us.
Ask yourself this: how can a country with an entire coastline along the Indian Ocean and multiple large lakes still want to fight us over Lake Malawi—our only inland water body of significance?
What kind of greedy neighbour fights to take one cup of water from your hand when they’re surrounded by oceans?
Tanzania’s actions reek of selfishness and insecurity. They don’t want to see Malawi win. They don’t want to see us grow. And worst of all, they want to cripple any effort we make to stabilize our economy, protect our local businesses, and find alternatives to our mounting forex and trade woes.
We’ve seen this before. When Joyce Banda was president, Tanzania tested our patience and our sovereignty. They sent soldiers to patrol the lake—not for protection, but for intimidation. It was a violation. A disgrace. A neighbour sending a message: “We are stronger than you.” Joyce Banda, overwhelmed and frightened, publicly admitted: “A Malawi, nine okonzeka Kufa nanu parody.” That’s how bad it was.
And now history is repeating itself.
But this time, we must not cower. We must not allow Tanzania to box us into submission. We must not allow fear to dictate our foreign policy or trade strategy. We need bold leadership—and we have it in Hon. Vitumbiko Mumba, our Minister of Trade. He has taken a clear stand. He has put Malawian interests first. And for that, every patriot must rally behind him.
Malawi must explore new alliances—partners who understand mutual respect and shared development. We need trade partners who uplift, not undermine. We must defend our economic space, protect our indigenous businesses, and fight for solutions that benefit Malawians, not foreign interests.
Tanzania must climb down from its high horse and approach this matter through diplomatic engagement. Not with threats. Not with pressure. Not with superiority. Because Malawi may be small—but we are sovereign, and we will not be bullied.
I stand with Vitumbiko Mumba. I stand with the people of Malawi.” End of quotation.
I have reproduced the whole letter to understand how Malawians see us fully. This article in my considered opinion reflects the public opinion of most Malawians. So, if there is a bully it isn’t Malawi but we are at least in their own eyes. Now, after fully answering our comrade, Claude Henry, now let us appraise the issue of leverage. This Malawian harrowing letter has shown Tanzania doesn’t have much power as it thinks it does. I subscribe fully to this view. Here is my critical analysis.
Malawi has other options, and Tanzania is the ultimate loser.
In the short run, the Malawian economy will bleed as a result of Tanzania’s imposition of an economic embargo, but Malawi will improvise, leaving Tanzania without investment attraction.
Today, Tanzania is the best port access for Malawi needlessly because of its proximity, peace, and the least vagaries of nature compared to Mozambique. However, those bottlenecks are solvable. Investors may come in and build a bullet train from Mozambique to Malawi despite geological challenges. That investment will make Mozambique, not Tanzania, a preferable port destination.
Tanzania’s leverage on Malawi is further weakened by infrastructural investments we have made, partly to serve inland markets like Malawi. This irresponsible trade dispute is undoing all that. Think of leasing Dar-es-Salaam port to international companies and the much-anticipated Saudi Arabia entrance at Bagamoyo Port.
Assuming the Malawi trade spat is unresolved, we will be creating avenues for all port investors to seek remedies of losing the Malawi port. Instead of minting cash from port investors we will be the ones coughing cash or accepting reduces earnings following losing the Malawi market. Once the Malawi transport market is gone it will never come back because the level of investment needed to attract developers to inject funds will ensure no more flirting with Tanzanian port access. Who will be the loser? Obviously, Tanzania.
The fertilizer angle is also reeking of similar concerns. Malawi may inflict us with economic pain by dumping our fertilizers, importing cheap Russian fertilizers, and docking it in Mozambique. Fertilizer markets are growing fewer and fewer because many countries are discovering natural gas of their own. Malawi too could hit it big in the disputed Lake Malawi. Besides, what has fertilizers and port access have to do with this trade dispute? How will they help us impose our will on Malawi? Let us stop throwing tantrums for we are not toddlers.
The agricultural ministry is hiding behind this trade dispute to cover its incompetence!
The gist of this trade dispute is Tanzania poor agricultural produce. Both Malawi and South Africa are complaining about lack of certification of Tanzanian agricultural produce. Why don’t we address our own mess? Why are our agricultural produce below international standards? Why when we go to our own local markets the quality is low but the prices keep soaring? Whose fault is this?
If you went to our local markets in December twenty years ago, the first thing you noticed was the scent of ripe fruits such as mangoes. Today, the same mangoes are harvested unripe and don’t mature properly. If you buy them, the taste is bitter and may lead to painful constipation.
Raw maize was supposed not for export. That was the previous administration policy: “….tunajenga nchi ya viwanda…hatuuzi mahindi tena. Mahindi yatasagwa ndipo yasafirishwe nje….” Not only Malawi, but even Kenya has been complaining Tanzania’s raw maize is tinted with Aflatoxin. Kenya in the past has recorded deaths from those who had consumed stiff porridge, local brew and makande made from raw Tanzania maize moulded with Aflatoxin.
Banana local market has not been fully exploited to think over exporting it. Many parts of Tanzania don’t have bananas in their marketplaces. Bananas despite facing serious pests and diseases is also enduring poor distribution. What is stopping us from improving our banana distribution?
Why SADC is not the last resort?
If you have trade disputes the first place to go is in regional bodies but if you had listened to the minister for agriculture, Mohammed Bashe, SADC is no go zone. Why? He mourns about country to country communication failures but when those don’t cede ground why SADC is not sought? We need answers from that.
The Ministry of Agriculture cannot and shouldn’t be hiding her incompetence through unproductive blame games that in a long run will hurt Tanzania than its trade adversaries. I intentionally skipped South Africa because, indeed, we know they know we do, we have zero leverage on them. We may shout, gesticulate, remonstrate and pogoe but all that will not flip the facts.
Facts are facts. If you do not accept them, you’re gonna end up a rude awakening!
