Hon. Waitara, an MP for Tarime Rural is crying foul even before one nomination vote has been cast. His ability to retain his parliamentary seat hangs on the balance. No matter what he says, the election template is crafted in the CCM constitution. Since the CCM rank and file have no role in the primaries his goose is cast ab initio.
Waitara may castigate members of the constituent political committees but the CCM constitution will not be changed to level the playing field. But who takes part in CCM constituent primaries? It is this small cabal of CCM insiders who ultimately nominates whomever to forward to the CCM central committee. They are the ones who carry out the first screening process that shortlist candidates. Superior CCM organs are not bound by their advice.
According to section 59 of the CCM constitution, there will be a Constituency Committee whose task is to nominate a person who will be a parliamentary candidate. That name will.be forwarded to the CCM central committee. It is in the composition of members of this Constituency Committee which raises lots of red flags.
The members are Regional and District Commissioners of the same region and district. All members of the National organs whether the central committee, National Council and the general convention. Others are councillors and the ward political committees. Secretaries of all CCM wings that include women, elders, youth in the district. MPs in the district are also members.
It is this contagion of CCM insiders that will pick who has to carry the constituent flag. Since this group often interacts together regularly it’s vulnerable to manipulation. They can form fraternities to advance their own causes too. Such groups tend to have candidates they will vote for in order to push their candidate to a finishing line.
Hon. Waitara is a CCM insider and knows how fraternities activate and reinforce their loyalties. He is now sensing a foregone defeat as these close societies which are impenetrable may have been cozying up with his fiercest rival who is the establishment candidate.
Waitara rightly blows the whistle but there is a constitutional order he cannot muster and must now await his fate one way or the other.
Can Waitara emerge victorious in Tarime Rural despite the political environment conspiring against him?
Waitara Mwita’s path to victory in Tarime Rural is severely constrained by systemic barriers within CCM, though not entirely impossible. Here’s a breakdown of the key factors:
⚔️ 1. Structural Biases in CCM Primaries.
– Elite-Driven Selection Process:
CCM’s primary system (post-2010 reforms) restricts candidate nomination to party insiders—Regional/District Commissioners, national organ members, councillors, and wing secretaries.
This cabal is vulnerable to manipulation by establishment factions, which currently oppose Waitara.
– Defector Disadvantage:
As a former CHADEMA MP who defected to CCM in 2018, Waitara lacks deep networks within CCM’s elite circles. Historically, opposition defectors struggle in CCM primaries: only 3 of 12 defecting MPs won nominations in 2025.
– Establishment Backing for Rivals:
Minister Damas Ndumbaru is openly promoting his Permanent Secretary, Mary Makondo, as a “more educated” alternative, violating constitutional neutrality rules.
🗳️ 2. Waitara’s Potential Counterstrategies.
Despite these hurdles, Waitara could leverage:
– Grassroots Credibility:
His advocacy for local issues—land compensation near Bulyanhulu mine, Serengeti encroachment resistance, and water projects—resonates with Tarime voters. If he mobilizes this base to pressure CCM elites, he could force concessions.
– Public Sympathy:
By framing his struggle as an “anti-elite purge,” he might galvanize anti-establishment sentiment. Similar rebellions succeeded in Ismani (against 30-year incumbent Lukuvi).
– Legal/Constitutional Challenges:
Waitara could sue over Ndumbaru’s interference (violating Article 107(1) on civil service neutrality). However, institutions like the National Electoral Commission (NEC) typically defer to CCM.
📊 3. Realistic Scenarios.
| No. | Scenario. | Probability. | Key Determinants. |
| 1.0 | Waitara loses nomination. | High (70%). | Elite consensus against him; defector stigma; rival’s establishment backing. |
| 2.0 | Shifts to Kivule constituency. | Medium (25%). | Strategic retreat to a new urban seat (carved from Ukonga), leveraging name recognition. |
| 3.0 | Wins Tarime nomination. | Low (5%). | Requires massive local protests + anti-corruption allies exposing Ndumbaru’s misconduct. |
💎 4. Broader Implications.
– CCM’s Internal Crisis:
Tarime reflects CCM’s power struggle between grassroots legitimacy and centralized control. If Waitara falls, it signals deepening elite capture.
– Opposition Opportunity:
ACT-Wazalendo could exploit CCM infighting to gain ground, especially with CHADEMA barred from elections.
✊ Conclusion:
Systemic Odds vs. Local Power.
Waitara’s victory is “unlikely but not impossible”. His fate hinges on whether Tarime’s voters can overpower CCM’s elite machinery through protests or legal pressure. Without extraordinary local mobilization—or a split among establishment factions—the “constitutional order” of CCM primaries will likely prevail.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
