Freeman Aikael Mbowe presidential ambitions have been truncated by five critical developments. First, his leadership loss to Tundu Lissu has weakened him politically. Secondly, the disqualification of Chadema from participating in the elections for the next five years has practically closed any loophole of gunning down the presidency through Chadema. Thirdly, his close confidants spurning Chadema for CHAUMMA has questioned his party loyalties, like no other.
Fourth, his absence in the Tundu Lissu trial has stirred a commotion with many Chadema diehards suspecting he is quietly celebrating the political persecution of his successor, Tundu Antipas Lissu. Fifth, his deafening silence over the stampede to Chaumma and position on Tundu Lissu criminal plight has left many tongues wagging: there are all kinds of conspiracy theories doing rounds but they are not worth investigating since they are founded on speculations.
Henceforth, speculations are rife that he could be on the Chadema’s exit door as we are perusing this article due to the fact his sidekicks have taken over most of the top positions of the CHAUMMA political party. He now has an ample room to reconsider his presidential options too.
Fake news have added fire in the mix by claiming CHAUMMA will field him as their presidential candidate. However, top officials of Chaumma have quickly dismissed those speculations as an upshot of Chadema spin doctors bitter by the horrific turn of events.
Despite the denunciation, rumours keep swirling and a fateful date of 26th May 2025 has been earmarked for a “big announcement” that will include Halima Mdee and her 18 female MPs. It could all come to nothing but it hurts nobody to consider the possible scenarios to emerge from all this caboodle.
One thing we know since his first unsuccessful presidential attempt in 2005, Mbowe has been nursing presidential ambitions of his own. He may have supported other presidential candidates like Dr Wilbard Slaa in 2010, in 2015 he threw his weight behind Edward Lowassa and in 2020 he had no qualms to push the Tundu Lissu presidential stab to a finishing line without success.
However, despite Mbowe keeping his presidential calculus tightly under his belt, there were tidbits here and there signalling he was very much considering his options. He tried to keep the Chadema chairperson in order to have a major say of whomever will gun down the presidency through Chadema. That sadly didn’t materialize.
For once, during his nation’s hustings, the unruly youth chanted: “…Mbowe Rais….Mbowe Rais….Mbowe Rais…” His critics dismissed those chants as paid mercenaries but to his fanatical base those were the hallmarks of a “Mr. President” in waiting.
Another incident worth considering was the utterances of one of his key sidekick Ezekia Wenje indicates Mbowe has never given up on his presidential dreams. The problem for Mbowe, according to my own analysis, was that he didn’t trust Tundu Lissu with the Chadema chairperson nor was he willing to choose between Chadema national Chairperson and be Chadema presidential candidate. His naked overambition, regrettably, denied him of both!
According to Tundu Lissu, Mbowe had attempted to reach him through Wenje and others with one request: leave Mbowe to run for Chadema’s national chairperson but didn’t include Tundu Lissu gunning down the presidency. Although Tundu Lissu didn’t say that broke his heart, I believe that became a source of disagreement and a Chadema’s leadership tussle ensued knowing whoever wins the Chadema national Chairperson automatically becomes their presidential candidate.
This contentious position was also in the past echoed by no one but Mbowe himself. In 2020, after he was allegedly ambushed by unknown thugs who roughed him up in Dodoma, his Hai voters paid him a courtesy visit at his palatial home in Dar-es-Salaam. It is what he said was extremely important. And according to my loose recollection this is what he had remarked:
“….kwenye nafasi ya kugombea Urais, Mwenyekiti wa Chama ndiyo haswa anafaa kugombea Urais…” he firmly gesticulated his clenched right hand to emphasize that point.
The implications were easier to discern: whoever was the Chadema national Chairperson automatically became their presidential candidate. That was not lost on Tundu Lissu. Tundu Lissu instinctively knew unless he was Chadema national Chairperson, his immediate political rival in the name of Freeman Aikael Mbowe would pip him to the presidential ticket. That became a point of contention between them and their supporters. The rest is now archived in our history treasure.
So far, there is no evidence to suggest that Freeman Mbowe will seek the Tanzanian presidency through the CHAUMMA political party. Here’s a detailed analysis:
1. Freeman Mbowe’s Current Status and Intentions:
As of May 2025, Freeman Mbowe is no longer the chairman of CHADEMA, having been replaced by Tundu Lissu in January 2025.
CHADEMA’s Secretary General, John Mnyika, explicitly stated that Mbowe has no intention to run for president, parliament, or lead any political party in the 2025 general elections. This was confirmed in a public statement after rumors circulated about his political future.
2. The G55 Group and CHAUMMA:
A faction of former CHADEMA members, known as G55, has joined CHAUMMA. However, Mbowe is not part of this group. The G55 primarily consists of individuals who supported Mbowe during CHADEMA’s internal elections but later resigned due to alleged discrimination and disagreements over the party’s “no reform, no election” stance. CHAUMMA’s leadership has welcomed potential new members but clarified that no formal engagement with G55 or Mbowe has occurred as of May 2025. Some members of G-55 have been appointed to top CHAUMMA positions fuelling rumours about Mbowe’s political future.
3. Mbowe’s Silence and Legal Challenges:
While some G55 members have used Mbowe’s name to recruit supporters, Mbowe himself has remained silent on these claims. His legal troubles, including imprisonment in 2021 on terrorism charges, further complicate any political comeback. Analysts note that CHADEMA’s internal conflicts and Mbowe’s diminished influence make it unlikely for him to lead a new party like CHAUMMA, which lacks significant political infrastructure.
4. Political Landscape Post-CHADEMA Leadership:
With Tundu Lissu now leading CHADEMA, the party is focused on challenging the ruling CCM in the 2025 elections. Mbowe’s role appears limited to advising or supporting CHADEMA’s strategy rather than forming a new alliance.
Valuable Observations:
Freeman Mbowe is not seeking the presidency through CHAUMMA. His public disavowal of political candidacy, combined with CHAUMMA’s lack of direct engagement with him, indicates that these rumors are unfounded. The G55’s potential merger with CHAUMMA does not involve Mbowe, who remains aligned with CHADEMA despite stepping down from leadership.
So far, Chaumma has not declared a presidential candidate.
Key Observations on Tanzania’s 2025 Presidential Race.
1. CHADEMA’s Leadership Shift.
Tundu Lissu was elected chairman of CHADEMA in January 2025, replacing Freeman Mbowe after a closely contested internal election. Lissu is positioning the party to challenge the ruling CCM in the upcoming elections, likely as its presidential candidate.
Freeman Mbowe, CHADEMA’s former chairman, has publicly stated he will not run for any political office in 2025 and is focusing on advisory roles within the party .
2. CCM’s Candidate.
The ruling party has nominated President Samia Suluhu Hassan as its candidate for the October 2025 elections, consolidating her position after assuming office in 2021 .
3. ACT-Wazalendo and Other Opposition Parties.
Dorothy Semu (leader of ACT-Wazalendo) was elected deputy chair of the Tanzania Centre for Democracy (TCD) in 2024, indicating her rising influence. However, ACT-Wazalendo has not yet announced its presidential candidate. ACT Wazalendo Party leader Comrade Dorothy Semu has officially stepped into the race for the presidency after picking up nomination forms.
Smaller parties like CUF and NCCR-Mageuzi remain active but lack the momentum to challenge CCM or CHADEMA .
4. CHAUMMA yet to express presidential ambitions.
So far, Chaumma is busier introducing itself nationally and will take a serious candidate of the magnitude of Mbowe or similar national status before sitting down and weighing their options.
However, presidential candidates have shown in the past to improve the political stocks of opposition parties in the distribution of subsidies as Chadema proved in 2015 after having a popular presidential candidate in the name of Edward Lowassa. He didn’t win the presidency but Chadema were very loaded with cash from the Treasury. Their finances took an ominous dive after the bungled elections of 2020, and have subsequently honed new skills of begging to make ends meet!
So, despite Chaumma’s emphatic denials they will be very luck having Mr. Mbowe as their presidential candidate. He will not win, for sure, but more subsidies is good news than less.
The focus to field presidential candidates remains on established parties like CHADEMA, CCM, and ACT-Wazalendo.
Valuable Takeaways.
The CHAUMMA party has not indicated an ambition to field a presidential candidate in the 2025 presidential race. The main contenders are likely to be:
Tundu Lissu (CHADEMA) vs. Samia Suluhu Hassan (CCM). Tundu Lissu presidential stab hangs in the balance following his political vehicle, Chadema, disqualification and his legal persecutions.
Smaller opposition parties like ACT-Wazalendo and NCCR-MAGEUZI may field candidates but are unlikely to gain a tangible footing in the elections.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
