A number of dynamics going on signals that Humphrey Polepole’s CCM faction has a potential presidential candidate capable of sending the incumbent president packing. Otherwise, why is Humphrey Polepole more than willing to burn it all at this hour of reckoning?
If you had carefully listened to what Ambassador Polepole said you could clearly slice the tension with a bread knife. Looks like Polepole sees his political future is in peril because of the entrenchment of the status quo. This can explain why keeping the ambassador portfolio is insufficient.
Polepole stiffened up the spinal cord of his case by mentioning others like some ambassadors and senior CCM officials as wishing there was more pluralism in CCM presidential nominations. It is a credibility tactic that was once invoked by Dr. Wilbard Slaa when he had surmised security forces were tired and willing to blurt it out in public. That got Dr. Slaa in a “hot soup” for he was remanded for a considerable duration awaiting a criminal hearing that didn’t come to pass.
What I cannot ignore is that there must be a credible candidate behind Polepole’s faction within the CCM they support. In 2015, Polepole aligned himself with the Magufuli campaign that went on to triumph in CCM nominations and nationally. The difference between 2015 and 2025 CCM nominations, in 2015 there was a vacancy seeking to be filled but in 2025 there is no such void. Polepole is “no brainer” to miss this obvious differentiation or he is speaking in tongues few can grasp?
The same tactics and strategies applied in 2015 when there was a vacancy cannot be applicable in 2025 when there is clearly no vacuum. As far as CCM is concerned, whoever is seeking presidential reelection harbours legitimate expectations of second term entitlement without any hassle. That is what happened since CCM participated in a multipartyism. That approach papers over succession cracks that Polepole’s rebellion attempts to widen.
It happened in 2000 when Mkapa was aiming to secure his second stint and so was in 2010 when Kikwete was doing the same. Magufuli too replicated the practice when gunning down for his last term in 2020. Bernard Membe who tried to challenge him in 2020 was quickly shown the exit door. After the 2020, Membe recoiled back to the party, and was suspiciously embraced. So was Lowassa after his Chadema presidential stab in 2015 which was scuppered. CCM was happy having him back home. The perception was Chadema lost their sniper in Lowassa which was a gain to CCM.
Unless the country was heading in a wrong direction, there is nothing in CCM to suggest there is dissatisfaction with President Samia’s rule. What we see she is surrounded by well wishers across the board. We know this because when the ratification of her second tenure came in the CCM general convention the applause was deafening. There were few patches of objections but not of sufficient extent to doubt her popularity in that meeting.
Therefore, whoever is against her coronation to the second and last term must have two reasons: either they have a credible candidate who can potentially oust her from her perch – a dubious proposition – or they are objecting who will succeed her in 2030.
Do they see her running mate, Dr. Emmanuel Nchimbi, as a natural successor by mere being in second command? However, CCM’s 48 years’ history suggests otherwise. Only two second-in-commands out of five epochs assailed the presidency. These were Ali Hassan Mwinyi and president Samia Suluhu Hassan. Mwinyi too wasn’t sure in 1985 would succeed Nyerere according to what another member of CCM central committee Patrick Qorro once shared to me.
Had Magufuli stayed alive, President Samia would have had to fight other contenders to succeed him in 2025. Nothing comes in a silver platter when it comes to CCM presidential succession battles once an incumbent is constitutionally barred from vying for a third term. And, 2030 CCM succession dynamics are not going to be different. They’re gonna be bitterly fought as we have now begun to see its trailer unfolding before our very disbelieving eyes.
Having ruled out ethical issues now Polepole is still parlaying to justify his rebellious mood, one thing is, however, abundantly clear succession politics of 2030, not 2025 are deepening CCM fragmentation. This discourse will attempt to answer a question: who is this mysterious man or woman, a CCM Insider, whom his or her supporters like Polepole believe can stand up to the sitting president and show her an exit door? It is an audacious posturing given the economy though sputtering isn’t on death row to warrant such a political earthquake unthinkable in CCM entire history.
Who is this mysterious CCM presidential candidate hidden from the public spotlight?
Based on the political dynamics within Tanzania’s ruling party (CCM), the identity of a potential challenger to President Samia Suluhu Hassan remains speculative but can be analyzed through the prisms of key events and factional patterns:
1. Humphrey Polepole’s Motivations and Factional Alignment.
– Polepole resigned as Ambassador to Cuba on July 13, 2025, citing:
– Leadership failures:
Accusing CCM of eroding human rights, accountability, and ethics.
– Primaries irregularities:
Criticizing candidate selection processes as violating CCM’s traditions of internal reform (“Mageuzi”).
– Historical dissent:
He previously criticized Samia’s administration in 2021, leading to the suspension of his YouTube channel.
– His resignation signals a “broader factional revolt” against Samia’s leadership, likely representing disaffected Magufuli loyalists or anti-Zanzibar elements within CCM.
2. Potential Challengers from CCM Factions.
While no specific candidate is conspicuous, but contextual clues point to figures aligned with:
– The Magufuli Legacy Faction:
– Polepole was a key Magufuli-era spokesperson and MP (2020–2022). His resignation may signal mobilization around a figure preserving Magufuli’s authoritarian populism.
– Prime Minister “Kassim Majaliwa” (a Magufuli appointee) unexpectedly withdrew from parliamentary re-election in July 2025, hinting at internal purges. His departure could free him to lead a faction but his lack of leadership mettle makes this very unlikely. He has no gut to stand up against the establishment rendering him ineffective as a leadership change enforcer within CCM.
– Anti-Samia Coalitions:
– Former Speaker “Job Ndugai” (resigned in 2022) previously criticized Samia’s debt policies, framing 2025 as a choice between “loan-seekers” and “self-reliance“. This rhetoric appeals to Mainland nationalists wary of Samia’s Zanzibari origins.
President Samia dismissed Ndugai’s posturing as 2025 “stresses” and in past has grumbled about her 2021 succession battles leading her to remind all and sundry: “..aliyesimama hapa ni Rais mwenye jinsia ya kike…”
She might have perceived the resistance she had accosted to succeed president Magufuli arose due to the fact that she was the first female to ascend to the highest office in Tanzania public service. She didn’t view being a Zanzibari had any component to it, though.
– Figures like “Edward Lowassa” (ex-PM who defected in 2015) or “Bernard Membe” did the same in 2020 (ex-Foreign Minister) have inspired historical factional influence. Lowassa returned to CCM in 2020, potentially reviving his network. They are now both deceased but their legacies in pleading CCM should “live what it preaches” lives on!
3. The 2030 Succession, Not 2025.
– Samia’s 2025 nomination was uncontested, and CCM’s structure rewards incumbents. Polepole’s revolt likely targets “influence over the post-2030 succession”:
– Samia’s running mate, “Emmanuel Nchimbi” is theoretically positioned as a potential successor, but CCM history shows VPs rarely inherit power (only Ali Hassan Mwinyi and Samia Suluhu Hassan succeeded). Nchimbi is not even near to succeed Samia and may not even be shortlisted as Mkapa and Kikwete, in 2005 and 2015 respectively, dumped their veepees in favour of more attractive presidential candidates.
There are no mechanisms to anoint second in command. In fact, second in command are picked because they lack a political base to challenge the incumbent. This too works against Dr. Emmanuel Nchimbi who is adept at concluding deals behind the scene but lacks charisma and intellectual ingenuity to capture and captivate the imagination of the electorate. In 2030 CCM will rummage for a leader who can outshine Chadema. Dr. Nchimbi won’t be in the consideration to begin with.
In simplistic terms, Dr. Nchimbi is a polished bureaucrat but not a born politician. Even after being in high public places nobody knows what he stands for beyond supporting CCM dogmas.
If all this hullabaloo is about derailing Dr. Nchimbi from succeeding president Samia Suluhu Hassan then that synergy is highly misplaced. In my considered opinion, Dr. Nchimbi is devoid of the gravitas to become the president in 2030, and will not be shortlisted for that reason alone. His political career will end in 2030 and will retire alongside president Samia Suluhu Hassan, period.
– Polepole’s criticism of Samia’s ethics and party management aims to “weaken Nchimbi’s legitimacy” for 2030.
4. Why No “Mysterious Candidate” is Named.
– Suppression of Dissent:
Opposition parties (e.g., Chadema) were banned from the 2025 elections, and internal CCM critics face sidelining (e.g., Polepole’s removal from parliament in 2022).
In CCM, obedience to the “Throne” is anchored on presidential appointment powers to reward loyalists and punish dissenters. Very few, indeed, muster the courage and grit to risk it all. Most prefer to “swim with the flow” keeping their plum jobs in process.
– Factional Fluidity:
CCM factions prioritize rent-seeking over ideology. A challenger would need military, business, and party elite backing—networks still coalescing.
– Samia’s Strengths:
She chairs CCM, controls state resources, and has populist outreach (e.g., digital party reforms).
Conclusion: The Real Battle is for 2030.
Polepole’s rebellion reflects “factional jockeying for the post-Samia era”, not an immediate 2025 challenge. His resignation amplifies grievances among Magufuli loyalists and Mainland elites, but no singular “mysterious candidate” is yet visible.
Instead, figures like Majaliwa, Ndugai, or resurgent faction leaders (Jakaya Kikwete’s scion) may emerge as kingmakers or contenders for the 2030 nomination, exploiting Samia’s tenure expiry. For Samia’s 2025 vulnerabilities are Zanzibari and gender identity, debt policies, and weakened intra-party democracy. The CCM’s survival depends on balancing these factions—failure risks transforming it into a “mere clique” despised by most Tanzanians.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
