From the air, Tanzania’s central coastline tells two very different stories. In Dar es Salaam, towering gantry cranes and busy container yards testify to a port that has served as the nation’s maritime workhorse for decades. Just 80 kilometres north, at Bagamoyo, the coastline lies largely untouched, save for a few survey markers, roadworks in the distance, and the steady hum of planning meetings taking place far from the water’s edge.
In the years ahead, these two locations could become the twin pillars of Tanzania’s maritime strategy. Or, if mismanaged, they could drift into costly competition, dividing cargo flows, duplicating investments, and diluting returns for both the Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) and the broader economy.
The question is simple but consequential: will Bagamoyo and Dar es Salaam operate as complementary engines in a coordinated national port system, or will they compete for the same cargo in a zero-sum game? The answer will shape not just the fortunes of the ports, but Tanzania’s standing in the increasingly competitive East African logistics market.
Dar es Salaam Today: The Established Giant
Dar es Salaam handles over 90% of Tanzania’s international trade, making it the undisputed giant of the country’s port system. In 2023/24, it moved roughly 23 million tonnes of cargo, and projections point toward 30 million tonnes by 2030 if current growth trends continue.
Recent modernization has already delivered impressive results. With DP World and the Adani Group managing key terminals, dredging to deepen the harbour, and the introduction of advanced digital systems, Dar has slashed vessel waiting times from 46 days to zero. Cargo throughput between May and November 2024 reached 14.4 million tonnes, a 5.6% year-on-year increase, and the government is targeting TZS 1.38 trillion in TPA revenues for FY 2025/26.
Expansion plans are equally ambitious. Ten new berths are in the pipeline, which will push Dar’s capacity to 33 million tonnes a year. This is no port in decline, Dar is on a trajectory to remain the primary maritime gateway for Tanzania and a critical node for landlocked neighbours like Zambia, Malawi, and the Democratic Republic of Congo.
Bagamoyo’s Intended Role: The New Challenger
Bagamoyo’s pitch is built on a different kind of scale. Its deep natural harbour can accommodate the latest generation of mega-container vessels, ships too large to call at Dar’s current 14-metre draft without extensive dredging.
The port is designed as part of an integrated 9,000-hectare Special Economic Zone (SEZ), with the potential to host over 700 industrial facilities. The government allocated TZS 22 billion in FY 2024/25 for early-stage works, signalling that Bagamoyo remains firmly on the strategic agenda.
At full build-out, Bagamoyo could serve as East Africa’s leading transshipment hub, linking Indian Ocean shipping lanes to the region’s inland corridors. Its SEZ would generate consistent export volumes, while its deep-water berths would attract vessels seeking faster turnaround times than congested competitors like Mombasa.
But Bagamoyo is not just a larger Dar es Salaam, at least, it shouldn’t be. Its role must be defined in a way that complements rather than cannibalises existing infrastructure. Without that clarity, the two ports risk stepping on each other’s toes.
Overlap Risks: Where Competition Could Hurt
Ports are expensive to build and even more expensive to operate. Without careful role definition, Bagamoyo and Dar could end up fighting for the same container volumes, undermining both facilities’ efficiency and profitability.
Cannibalization of Container Traffic
If major shipping lines can simply choose between Bagamoyo and Dar for the same types of cargo, the result could be a redistribution of existing trade rather than net growth. This would leave both ports underutilized relative to their designed capacities.
Duplication of Investment
Two ports investing in similar cargo-handling infrastructure, customs facilities, and hinterland connections could drive up national capital expenditure without delivering proportionate gains.
Revenue Dilution for TPA
With both ports under the Tanzania Ports Authority, any cargo shift from one to the other would simply reshuffle TPA revenues rather than expand them, while potentially increasing operating costs for the network as a whole.
Regional Competitiveness Risk
An uncoordinated dual-port strategy could weaken Tanzania’s ability to compete against regional rivals like Mombasa, Lamu, and Beira, which are aggressively upgrading capacity and marketing themselves as efficient, unified gateways.
The stakes are high. If these overlap risks aren’t addressed before Bagamoyo goes live, Tanzania could end up with two powerful ports that dilute each other’s value rather than reinforcing it.
Complementarity Models: Turning Rivals into Partners
The most important design decision in Tanzania’s two-port future is not about concrete or cranes, it’s about cargo segmentation. If Bagamoyo and Dar are given clearly defined roles, they can expand the country’s capacity without undermining each other.
Bagamoyo as the Mega-Ship & Transshipment Hub
With its deep 17-metre draft and extensive expansion space, Bagamoyo is perfectly positioned to handle ultra-large container vessels (ULCVs) that carry over 14,000 TEUs. These ships thrive in deep-water ports with minimal tidal restrictions and high throughput speeds, conditions Bagamoyo can offer. Its transshipment role would also link East Africa more directly to Indian Ocean trade lanes, allowing smaller feeder ships to distribute cargo to regional ports.
Dar es Salaam as the Mixed-Cargo & Feeder Hub
Dar’s central location, urban economic ecosystem, and existing road/rail connections make it well-suited for mixed cargo: bulk commodities, break-bulk shipments, liquid bulk, and smaller container vessels. Its ongoing modernization means it can continue to serve as the country’s primary import/export hub for domestic and regional trade, while Bagamoyo focuses on high-volume, high-speed transshipment.
Coordinated Tariffs & Scheduling
The key to making this model work is coordination, not competition, on tariffs, scheduling, and service offerings. Joint marketing of the “Tanzania Port Network” to global shipping lines can position the two facilities as complementary gateways rather than rival bidders for the same calls.
Lessons from Other Multi-Port Systems
Tanzania is not the first country to manage multiple major ports in close proximity. International experience offers clear roadmaps for success, and warnings about what to avoid.
Morocco: Tangier Med vs. Casablanca
Tangier Med is designed for transshipment and global hub status, while Casablanca handles domestic and regional cargo. Morocco’s national port authority coordinates investments and marketing for both, avoiding destructive competition. The result? Tangier Med became the largest port in the Mediterranean, while Casablanca retained its role as the country’s primary domestic trade gateway.
South Africa: Durban vs. Ngqura
Durban remains the country’s largest container port, while Ngqura was built as a deep-water alternative for transshipment and overflow capacity. The key has been niche positioning and national coordination through Transnet, the state-owned operator.
China: Shanghai vs. Ningbo-Zhoushan
These two mega-ports, just 150 km apart, serve distinct roles within a single, integrated logistics system. Their cooperation, backed by central government planning, has made them the top two ports globally by volume.
What Not to Do
In countries where ports have been left to compete unchecked, such as some West African nations, fragmentation has led to underutilization, higher logistics costs, and lost market share to better-organized rivals.
Policy & Governance Mechanisms
No complementarity model will work without a unified governance framework. This is where Tanzania’s policymakers have the most leverage to shape outcomes before Bagamoyo opens.
National Port Strategy
The Ministry of Works and Transport, working with the Tanzania Ports Authority, should codify cargo segmentation, investment timelines, and operational roles for each port in a formal strategy document. This ensures that future governments, investors, and port operators work from the same blueprint.
Regulatory Oversight
A dedicated regulatory unit within TPA, or a separate independent body, should oversee pricing policies, capacity planning, and infrastructure investments across both ports to avoid duplication and harmful competition.
Joint Marketing & Data Sharing
Bagamoyo and Dar should present themselves to shipping lines as a single service network, offering combined route packages and coordinated scheduling. This requires real-time data sharing on vessel calls, berth availability, and cargo flows.
Performance-Linked Concessions
Private operators in both ports should work under performance-linked concession agreements, ensuring that commercial incentives align with national strategic objectives rather than pure market share battles.
Infrastructure Integration: The Missing Link
Even the best-designed port strategy will fail if ships can’t efficiently move cargo inland. The success of both Bagamoyo and Dar hinges on how well they connect to Tanzania’s transport corridors.
Standard Gauge Railway (SGR)
The SGR is the linchpin. Linking both ports to the Central Corridor will allow faster, higher-capacity cargo movements to and from the Great Lakes region, reducing reliance on slow and costly trucking. If Bagamoyo is to serve as a transshipment hub, dedicated SGR spurs into the port and its SEZ should be prioritized alongside construction.
Road Connectivity
The Bagamoyo–Dar corridor will need to handle higher traffic volumes without bottlenecks. This means dual carriageway upgrades, improved highway interchanges, and better links to inland dry ports such as Isaka.
Inland Dry Ports
Developing strategically located dry ports, in Dodoma, Mwanza, and Kigoma, will spread the benefits of port investment deeper into the national economy. These facilities can act as consolidation points for exports and deconsolidation hubs for imports, improving turnaround times at both Bagamoyo and Dar.
Without this integration, Tanzania risks repeating the mistake of ports like Lamu, where impressive maritime infrastructure has been undermined by inadequate hinterland links.
Regional Competitive Context
Tanzania’s dual-port strategy must be seen in the context of an increasingly competitive regional market.
Kenya’s Mombasa & Lamu
Mombasa remains East Africa’s busiest port, with deep ties to Uganda, Rwanda, and eastern DRC. Lamu was built to handle mega-ships and serve Ethiopia and South Sudan, but slow hinterland development has limited its potential.
Mozambique’s Beira & Nacala
Beira’s recent dredging and Nacala’s deep-water capacity position Mozambique as a strong alternative for Malawi, Zambia, and parts of the DRC.
Dar–Bagamoyo Alliance Potential
A coordinated approach could see Tanzania dominate key corridors, offering shippers a choice of two specialized ports served by integrated rail and road systems. This would give the country a marketing edge, not just as an alternative to Mombasa, but as a first choice for regional trade.
The challenge is that competitors are not standing still. Without decisive policy action, Tanzania could miss the window to establish Bagamoyo and Dar as a dominant dual-port system.
Conclusion: Partnership or Tug of War?
The next decade will decide whether Bagamoyo and Dar es Salaam become partners in growth or rivals in decline.
Handled well, the two ports could operate like Morocco’s Tangier Med and Casablanca, distinct roles, coordinated strategies, and shared market dominance. Handled poorly, they could follow the path of fragmented West African port systems, where competition between neighbouring facilities weakened them against better-coordinated rivals.
The choice rests with policymakers and operators. By embedding complementarity in national port strategy, aligning infrastructure investments, and resisting the temptation to let market forces alone dictate roles, Tanzania can turn two ports into one powerful network.
The cranes, berths, and breakwaters are only part of the story. The real work is in the coordination, governance, and vision that will decide whether Bagamoyo and Dar together can transform Tanzania into the Indian Ocean’s leading gateway, or leave the country with a tale of missed potential and divided strength.