Since May 2025, Clayton Revocatus Chipando, popularly known by his label name “Baba Levo”, made it abundantly known he would be running for the Kigoma Urban Parliamentary seat. In the past, he was an opposition councillor in the same constituency. However, now he has shifted loyalty to the ruling party, and has found allegiance to President Samia Suluhu Hassan.
Behind his heels is none other than his social media rival, Mwijaku who too has declared he will pick the Kigoma Urban Parliamentary seat. Mwijaku whose real name is Mwemba Burton has in the past attempted to be the speaker of the Parliament. In 2020, after the elections he took the Deputy Speaker forms but his name didn’t make the cut as the current speaker, Tulia Ackson, took the trophy. So his interest in political leadership is known but whether he has what it takes to be the Kigoma MP remains a matter of “wait and see.”
On their trail is current MP, Ngenda Kilumbe Shabani, whom either of them has to oust in CCM primaries. It is a battle of wits, political connections, and stamina. Who has a higher chance of nailing the job?
HOW WILL THE POLITICAL DYNAMICS PLAY OUT?
Based on the political dynamics of Tanzania and CCM primaries, here’s a breakdown of each candidate’s chances for the Kigoma Urban Parliamentary seat:
1. Incumbent MP Ngenda Kilumbe Shabani (CCM):
* Strengths:
Holds the most significant advantage as the sitting MP. He controls the constituency development fund (CDF), has established networks, patronage systems, and name recognition. He has a track record (however perceived) to defend or promote.
CCM often leans towards incumbency barring major dissatisfaction. He has direct access to parliamentary and party machinery resources.
* Weaknesses:
Faces anti-incumbency sentiment common anywhere. Any perceived underperformance, lack of visibility, or failure to deliver on local priorities could be exploited. He is the direct target both challengers aim to unseat.
* Chance: HIGH.
Incumbency is a powerful force in CCM primaries. He starts as the favorite.
2. Baba Levo (Clayton Revocatus Chipando – CCM):
* Strengths:
High name recognition from his music career (“Baba Levo”) and previous role as an opposition councillor in Kigoma Urban. This shows existing local political experience and roots. His defection to CCM and vocal support for President Samia Suluhu Hassan signals strong alignment with the current party leadership, which could earn him crucial backing from regional/national party officials seeking loyalists. His youth appeal and social media savviness could energize a segment of the electorate/delegates.
* Weaknesses:
Defectors can face skepticism about loyalty (“political opportunism”) from long-time CCM members. His past in the opposition could be used against him. Needs to prove his CCM credentials are solid and that he can mobilize the party structures beyond his personal popularity. Converting music fame into delegate votes requires strong ground organization.
* Chance: MODERATE to HIGH.
He presents the most credible challenge to the incumbent. His local experience, name recognition, and pro-Samia stance are significant assets. Success hinges on convincing delegates he’s a genuine CCM asset now and can win the general election.
3. Mwijaku (Mwemlba Burton – CCM):
* Strengths:
Demonstrated ambition for high office (Deputy Speaker bid). National name recognition, possibly more so than the incumbent or Baba Levo outside Kigoma, due to his past bid and likely media presence. Shows persistence in seeking leadership roles.
* Weaknesses:
Crucially lacks local connection to Kigoma Urban. His political experience is at the national level (failed Deputy Speaker bid), not in constituency service or local government. This makes him vulnerable to attacks about being an outsider who doesn’t understand local issues.
His failure to secure the Deputy Speaker position might indicate weaker internal party support or organizational capacity than needed. No apparent local base or track record in Kigoma.
* Chance: LOW.
In a constituency primary, deep local roots and proven service (like Ngenda) or strong local recognition/defection advantage (like Baba Levo) are paramount.
Mwijaku’s national profile doesn’t easily translate into winning a specific constituency primary where delegates expect intimate knowledge and commitment to their local area. He faces an uphill battle to establish local credibility.
Who has the higher chance?
* Ngenda Kilumbe Shabani (Incumbent) has the highest chance. Incumbency, control of resources, and established local networks within the CCM structure are powerful advantages in a primary.
* Baba Levo is the most credible challenger.
His combination of local political experience (as councillor), immense local name recognition, and strategic alignment with the current President gives him a strong platform. If he can effectively organize delegates and counter any “opportunist” narratives, he could pull off an upset.
* Mwijaku faces significant hurdles.
His lack of a discernible local base or track record in Kigoma Urban makes him the clear underdog against two opponents with strong local ties (one through incumbency, one through past representation and fame).
The Deciding Factors:
1. Delegate Mobilization:
CCM primaries are won by convincing and transporting the party delegates. Who has the best ground game and resources to get their supporters to the primary meeting?
2. Perception of Electability:
Who do delegates believe can win the general election for CCM? Incumbents usually have this edge, but a popular figure like Baba Levo could challenge that.
3. Party Machinery & Factions:
Support from influential regional/national CCM figures, potentially swayed by Baba Levo’s pro-Samia stance or Ngenda’s incumbency, will be crucial. Mwijaku’s past bid suggests some connections, but is likely less locally relevant.
4. Anti-Incumbency:
Is there significant dissatisfaction with Ngenda’s performance strong enough to override the incumbency advantage?
5. Defection Narrative:
Can Baba Levo successfully frame his move to CCM as positive (bringing new energy, aligning with the President) or will the “opportunist” label stick?
My Opinion:
While it’s a competitive three-way race, Incumbent MP Ngenda Kilumbe Shabani enters the CCM primaries as the frontrunner due to the power of incumbency.
Baba Levo is the strongest challenger, leveraging his local history, fame, and pro-Samia stance. Mwijaku, despite his national ambitions, appears to be the outsider struggling to establish the necessary local foundation and faces the lowest chance of securing the nomination.
The winner will likely be decided by which candidate best navigates the complex web of delegate loyalties, resource mobilization, and internal party dynamics.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
