Here is an analysis of the challenges faced by former Chadema MPs who defected to CCM in the party’s internal nomination process for the 2025 Tanzania elections:
11 MPs Defected from Chadema – Only Two Cleared CCM’s Hurdle.
Low Success Rate in Internal Primaries.
Only “2 out of 11” former Chadema special-seat MPs secured nominations through CCM’s internal primaries (“kura za maoni“):
“Jesca Kishoa” won in Iramba East (Singida) with 5,946 votes (56.8% of 10,458 votes).
”Kunti Majala” won in Chemba (Dodoma) with 5,809 votes (a clear majority over five rivals).
The other nine former Chadema MPs lost decisively in their respective constituencies:
“Ester Bulaya” (Bunda Urban): 3rd place (625 votes) behind Robert Maboto (2,545) and Kambarage Wasira (2,032).
“Hawa Mwaifunga” (Tabora Urban): 3rd place (326 votes) behind Shaaban Mrutu (6,612).
“Esther Matiko” (Tarime Urban): 3rd place (196 votes) behind Michael Kembaki (1,568).
“Cecilia Paresso” (Karatu): 2nd place (1,341 votes) but far behind incumbent Daniel Awack (7,884).
“Factors Contributing to Their Struggles”.
Strong Local Competition:
Most faced established CCM figures with deep local support. For example, in Bunda Urban, Bulaya lost to a former MP (Maboto) and a strong local contender (Wasira).
Low Vote Shares:
Defectors consistently ranked 2nd or 3rd with minimal vote percentages. Matiko garnered only 196 votes (11.2% of the total) in Tarime Urban.
Lack of Party Base:
Despite joining CCM, they struggled to build loyalty among CCM members who perceived them as newcomers without grassroots connections.
Exceptions and Pending Decisions.
“Jesca Kishoa” and ”Ester Bulaya” were later named in CCM’s final candidate list for Iramba East and Bunda Urban, respectively, suggesting possible intervention by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC). This aligns with historical practices where CCM’s NEC overrides primary results to favor certain candidates.
Results for three other defectors—Grace Tendega (Kalenga), Sophia Mwakagenda (Rungwe), and Stella Fiyao (Ileje)—were still pending at the time of reporting.
Broader Political Context.
CCM’s Candidate Purge:
The nomination process saw even prominent long-time CCM MPs dropped (e.g., January Makamba, Luhaga Mpina), indicating intense internal competition where defectors faced higher hurdles.
Strategic Shift:
CCM is balancing between retaining established leaders and accommodating defectors. While some former Chadema MPs like Peter Msigwa (Iringa Urban) secured nominations, most struggled due to limited integration time.
Legal Changes:
New electoral laws prevent unopposed wins, forcing all candidates—including defectors—into competitive primaries.
Conclusion.
Former Chadema MPs faced significant disadvantages in CCM primaries due to weak local roots and fierce competition. While CCM’s NEC may rescue some high-profile defectors, their overall performance underscores.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
