Who would have known that lopsided election laws designed to keep CCM in power indefinitely would char the soul of a nation in this way? The country is so divided and polarised to an extent that it is teetering into an ungovernable state.
People are now turning once peaceful events into a venting of their frustration over the lack of democratic space. In weddings, liberation songs are now very much in order. Funerals, too, have been very much political platforms. Liberation songs are being written, sung, and shared on social media.
Think of Mpoto, whose wife died, and the amount of gaslighting he had to endure. Consider online news outlets that have seen their followers stampede once ties with CCM were made to stick. Even in sports, people are praying for the national and club teams to receive a pasting. Naysayers are saying that good news for the country is bad news for them. They add that theirs is a bad report, so why should a nation feel otherwise? They conclude they are not in business to validate an illegitimate governance that has atrophied their economic well-being.
There is now a recognition that unless election laws are changed, many believe their economic plight will never change for the better. Many see CCM no longer as their employee but their employer. CCM boasts it is a good listener but has turned screws on all those who questioned its legitimacy to govern.
Those in opposition are now treated like they are treated as if they are ex-convicts on parole. If they want to travel outside the country, the police remember they are on parole, and part of the terms is not to travel outside the country. Regrettably for the authorities, all that illegal effort has backfired.
Security forces, with all their might, don’t create wealth, and when they fail to serve the people, they become parasites, enjoying the benefits without adding any tangible value. In fact, the security forces are killing the goose that has been laying golden eggs.
Tanzania’s security forces have little regard for human rights, little do they know that without them, they will not draw their monthly salaries. And Tanzania is sliding towards an abysmal failure to meet its recurrent expenditures, which include paying members of the security forces their dues.
CCM leverage is on top of the security forces, but has little hold on those holding lower ranks. This relationship is going to be tested as we move forward. Those in higher ranks are well taken care of but those I’m the basement suffer like the rest of Tanzanians.
This is now a watershed: how far can the underpaid lower ranks keep obeying orders that impoverish them even more? Top men and women in uniforms are billionaires but those they lead are paupers. Going forward, CCM will find that less and less money is available to bribe lower ranks.
President Magufuli had to wipe out their housing loans to win them on their side, and that hollowed out the Treasury one trillion shillings that could have created millions of jobs for our unemployed youth. This Magufuli gesture defines the relationship between CCM and security forces. Moving forward, there will be lots of empty words about job creation to appease the angry and frustrated youth.
Over time, CCM will not have to worry about the youth but also the disgruntled lower members of the military. And, in Tanzania history isn’t new. In 1964, junior members of the military attempted to oust Nyerere over payment dissatisfaction. It took the intervention of Britain to save Nyerere from joining an array of African leaders who were ousted by a military putsch.
CCM will begin to see external doors of aid are closing since most Western nations’ psyche will not condone human rights abuses and rigged elections. The Chinese will stick with them because in their own country they don’t exercise western democracy. And, will pay a blind eye to human rights abuses. As I am writing this piece, the EU is already debating what kind of economic sanctions and possibly embargo to impose on CCM governance.
They did to Boers, president Arap Moi of Kenya and others with positive outcomes. Cutting CCM’s ability to run the national budget is a golden key to force them to accept meaningful reforms that will return the power of the ballot box to the voters. Until then CCM will continue treating Tanzanians as their personal properties which they can deal with as they deem fit. At the moment, elitist election laws have pulverized a nation and we lack moral leaders like Nyerere whose word of wisdom used to be a law of a country.
We have crafted a system of “carrot and stick” that has reshaped our ethical conduct into sycophancy. We have ministers once appointed who roll themselves in the dust to thank the president since they know they are unqualified for the job they have been appointed. The only reason they have been appointed is because they will align themselves with the personal interests of their appointed and serve her but will never serve the people.
The Big Question Now What Will Take CCM To Fix Election Laws: Economic Embargo or Civil Unrest?
The political crisis unfolding in Tanzania represents a systemic breakdown driven by electoral authoritarianism, economic despair, and institutional decay. Below is a comprehensive analysis of the forces at play and potential pathways to reform:
⚖️ 1. Electoral Framework as a Tool of Authoritarianism.
– Legal Manipulation:
The banning of CHADEMA from the 2025 elections—for refusing to sign an electoral code of conduct that entrenches CCM dominance—exposes the legal farce. The code was demanded “before” legally required nomination procedures, rendering opposition participation impossible.
– Judicial Complicity:
Courts enable repression by charging opposition leader Tundu Lissu with treason for advocating electoral reforms and blocking legal challenges to presidential results.
– Precedent of Violence:
The 2024 local elections saw CCM “win” 99% of seats amid opposition candidate disqualifications and voter suppression, signaling the October 2025 outcome is pre-determined.
💸 2. Economic Grievances Fueling Discontent.
– Elite Capture vs. Mass Impoverishment:
Neoliberal policies under both CCM and CHADEMA prioritize foreign investors over citizens, exemplified by port privatizations and subsidies for elite perks (e.g., official SUVs) while 80% struggle with inflation and unemployment.
– Security Forces as Parasites:
Police and military leaders amass wealth through corruption, while rank-and-file officers earn poverty wages. This mirrors the 1964 army mutiny over pay disparities—a vulnerability CCM temporarily addressed with costly loan waivers (TZS 1 trillion), draining public coffers.
– Youth Explosion:
60% of Tanzania’s population is under 25, with minimal job prospects. Economic hopelessness transforms weddings, funerals, and social media into platforms for anti-government protests.
🛡️ 3. Security Apparatus: Fracturing Loyalties.
– The Paupers-Billionaires Divide:
Top security commanders are billionaires aligned with CCM elites, while junior officers survive on $280/month. This inequality undermines obedience; orders to suppress protests now risk mutiny as salaries dwindle amid budget shortfalls.
– Historical Precedent:
The 1964 mutiny proved that underpaid security personnel can turn against the state. With recurrent expenditures faltering, CCM cannot sustain patronage to lower ranks.
🌍 4. International Leverage: Sanctions vs. Silence.
– Western Pressure:
The EU is debating targeted sanctions (asset freezes, travel bans) and aid cuts. Historical successes include Kenya’s Moi regime accepting reforms after aid suspensions.
– AU/SADC Complicity:
Regional bodies ignore abductions and media gagging, despite the African Charter mandating election observer missions. Their inaction emboldens CCM.
– Chinese Enabling:
China provides diplomatic cover and investments without governance conditions, allowing CCM to bypass Western pressure.
⏳ 5. Pathways to Reform: Embargo or Unrest?
– Economic Embargoes:
– Pros:
Aid freezes could force fiscal collapse, compelling CCM to negotiate. Example: South Africa’s apartheid regime yielded to sanctions.
– Cons:
China may fill the void, and ordinary citizens suffer most from austerity.
– Civil Unrest:
– Pros:
Nationwide strikes/protests could fracture security forces, as underpaid officers refuse orders. Zanzibar’s 2020 protests showed this potential.
– Cons:
High risk of violent crackdowns and military intervention.
💎 Conclusion: The Tipping Point.
Tanzania’s survival as a functional state hinges on dismantling CCM’s electoral dictatorship. “International sanctions” offer a non-violent path but require unified Western action to overcome Chinese backing. “Civil unrest” could catalyze change if security forces defect, yet risks bloodshed. The most viable solution combines:
– Sustained pressure from sanctions to cripple elite finances.
– Grassroots mobilization (e.g., land rights movements, labor strikes) to exploit security force fractures.
Without immediate action, Tanzania faces state failure—either through revolutionary violence or economic implosion. The window for peaceful reform is closing rapidly.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
The author shows a profound knowledge of why Tanzania in practice, remains a one-party state; but the “dismantling of CCM’s electoral dictatorship via “International sanctions” offers a non-violent path via unified Western action to overcome Chinese backing” seems hardly realistic today; that “the EU is already debating what kind of economic sanctions and possibly embargo to impose on CCM governance” refers apparently to the situation more than two years ago; today the EU with Denmark in the chair of the EU Council of Ministers during the rest og this year, is focusing on sanctions on Russia and trade relations with the United States.