The below timeline illustrates Tanzania’s accelerating democratic backsliding as the October 2025 elections approach. Here’s a contextual analysis integrating documented events and underlying political dynamics:
⚖️ 1. Systematic Criminalization of Opposition.
– Tundu Lissu’s Treason Charges stem from his April 3 social media posts advocating an election boycott over alleged state-sponsored rigging—a charge carrying potential death penalty. His 2017 assassination attempt and forced exile underscore persistent risks to critics.
– Travel Bans & Arrests:
Brenda Rupia’s arrest (July 12) under cybercrime laws for “false information” mirrors a documented pattern of silencing dissent. CHADEMA officials faced similar restrictions in April 2025.
– Party Disqualification:
CHADEMA’s electoral exclusion (April 12) for refusing to sign a state-controlled “code of conduct” cripples multiparty democracy, cementing CCM dominance.
Table: Escalating Legal Persecution of CHADEMA (Jan-July 2025).
| No. | Date. | Event. | Legal Tool Used. |
| 1.0 | January 2025. | Lissu summoned for “incitement”. | Cybercrimes Act. |
| 2.0 | April 9, 2025. | Lissu was arrested after the Mbinga rally. | Treason charges. |
| 3.0 | April 12, 2025. | CHADEMA is barred from elections. | Electoral code violation. |
| 4.0 | July 12, 2025. | Brenda Rupia arrested at the border. | False information accusation. |
🌐 2. Digital Warfare & Information Control.
– Police Twitter Hack (May 2025):
The fabricated post about President Samia’s death exploited Tanzania’s fragile cybersecurity infrastructure. This aligns with state-imposed social media restrictions documented since 2024.
– Weaponized Ambiguity:
The Polepole resignation letter (July 13–14) spread amid Meta AI warnings of potential hacking. This chaos reflects a documented tactic: exploiting digital uncertainty to discredit critics or obscure state actions.
– Legal Repression:
Laws like the Cybercrimes Act are routinely used to prosecute online dissent (e.g., Shadrack Chaula’s 2024 conviction for “insulting” the president).
🏛️ 3. CCM’s Internal Fractures & Leadership Crisis.
– Polepole’s “Resignation:
His leaked letter criticized CCM’s abandonment of “justice and discipline,” specifically condemning opaque nomination processes favoring “individuals over party principles.” CCM’s response dismissed it as a “personal view” but confirmed his party loyalty.
– Factional Power Struggles:
The incident echoes earlier CCM infighting, like Secretary-General Daniel Chongolo’s 2023 resignation after a smear campaign. President Samia’s appointment of Magufuli-era hardliners (e.g., Paul Makonda) signals a shift toward authoritarian consolidation to secure Lake Zone support.
🗳️ 4. Election Credibility & Institutional Collapse.
– Pre-Election Violence:
Abductions/killings of opposition figures (e.g., Ali Kibao’s acid-doused body in September 2024) intensified through 2025.
– Parliament Dissolution (June 27):
Triggered CHADEMA’s #NoReformsNoElection boycott—a response to Samia’s 2023 reversal of constitutional review promises.
– International Alarm:
Freedom House downgraded Tanzania to “not free” (2025), while the EU Parliament condemned Lissu’s arrest and electoral exclusion.
Table: International Response to Tanzania’s Crisis (2024-2025).
| No. | Actor. | Action. | Focus. |
| 1.0 | EU Parliament. | Resolution demanding Lissu’s release (May 2025). | Human rights, electoral fairness. |
| 2.0 | Amnesty International. | Condemned “repression” of opposition (April 2025). | Arbitrary arrests, killings. |
| 3.0 | Freedom House. | Downgraded Tanzania to “Not Free” (2025). | Democratic erosion. |
🔮 Key Implications & Trajectory.
– Election Legitimacy at Stake:
With CHADEMA barred, opposition suppressed, and reforms abandoned, the October vote risks being a CCM coronation.
– CCM’s Contradiction:
Samia’s early reforms (2021–2023) have unraveled. Hardliner appointments and digital/media crackdowns signal a return to Magufuli-era autocracy.
– International Leverage Waning:
EU threats to condition aid (e.g., Global Gateway projects) remain vague, while Tanzania ignores AU scrutiny.
💎 Conclusion.
Tanzania’s 2025 election cycle reveals a “triple crisis”: judicial persecution of dissent, digital disinformation as statecraft, and ruling-party fragmentation masked by authoritarian retrenchment.
The Polepole incident—now confirmed authentic and not hacked by the CCM organising and publicity Secretary, Amos
Makala —exposes CCM’s eroding internal cohesion, even as it tightens control. Without urgent mediation, Tanzania faces not just electoral fraud, but a constitutional collapse where “democracy” exists only as a hollow ritual. The international community’s tepid response risks normalizing this descent.
Chaula’s Abduction Case Still Haunts A Nation.
📌 The Case of Shadrack Chaula: Timeline and Context.
⚖️ Legal Prosecution & Conviction (June–July 2024).
– June 30, 2024:
Shadrack Chaula, a 24-year-old artist from Mbeya, posted a TikTok video burning a portrait of President Samia Suluhu Hassan while making derogatory remarks. The video went viral, leading to his arrest under Tanzania’s Cybercrimes Act for “spreading false information” and “cyber-harassment“.
– July 4, 2024:
Chaula was convicted under Section 16 of the Cybercrimes Act and sentenced to two years in prison or a fine of TZS 5 million (∼$2,200). Unable to pay, he was jailed.
– July 8, 2024:
Following a public fundraising campaign on social media, Chaula’s fine was paid, securing his release from Ruanda Prison. He publicly thanked supporters.
😨 Abduction (August 2, 2024).
– Twenty days after his release, Chaula was abducted by unidentified armed men in a white Land Cruiser outside his home in Ntokela Village, Mbeya. His father, Yusuph Chaula, reported the incident to police, pleading for help: “I want him back, whether alive or dead“.
– Police launched an investigation but denied involvement, despite public skepticism. Yusuph Chaula noted: “We have been to all police stations—they say they don’t have him“.
🔍 Key Issues and Broader Patterns.
⛓️ 1. Criminalization of Dissent & Extrajudicial Reprisals.
– **Legal Tools for Suppression**: Chaula’s prosecution under the Cybercrimes Act reflects Tanzania’s use of vague laws to silence critics. Lawyers contested the charges, arguing no law criminalizes burning a president’s image.
– Post-Legal Targeting:
Despite serving his sentence, Chaula’s abduction suggests state actors or affiliates circumvented the judicial system to further punish him. This aligns with Tanzania’s documented pattern of enforced disappearances targeting government critics.
🌐 2. Escalating Abduction Crisis.
– Systematic Trend:
The Tanganyika Law Society (TLS) documented 83 cases of abductions and disappearances, including opposition members like Kombo Mbwana (held secretly for 29 days) and activist Edgar Mwakabela (found tortured in Katavi Game Reserve).
– Transnational Repression:
High-profile cases like activist Maria Sarungi Tsehai’s kidnapping in Nairobi (January 2025)—blamed on Tanzanian intelligence—highlight cross-border suppression.
🏛️ 3. State Response: Denial and Distraction.
– Police Inaction:
Authorities routinely deny knowledge of disappearances, only confirming detainments after public pressure (e.g., Kombo Mbwana’s case).
– Political Rhetoric:
President Samia urged traditional chiefs to condemn kidnappings (July 2024) but deflected responsibility, calling them “non-Tanzanian” acts while ignoring evidence of state complicity.
📊 Broader Implications.
⚠️ Democratic Erosion Ahead of 2025 Elections.
Chaula’s case exemplifies Tanzania’s accelerating crackdown on dissent before the October 2025 general elections:
– Opposition Suppression:
CHADEMA leaders face arrests, travel bans, and rally disruptions.
– Digital Repression:
Threats to ban social media platform X (July 2024) and weaponization of cyber laws stifle free expression.
🌍 International Concern.
– Rights groups (e.g., Amnesty International) and the EU have condemned Tanzania’s repression, linking aid to human rights reforms. However, enforcement remains weak.
💎 Conclusion.
Shadrack Chaula’s abduction after legally resolving his case underscores a “two-tiered repression strategy”: judicial harassment followed by extrajudicial violence.
This reflects a broader crisis of state-sanctioned disappearances and shrinking civic space in Tanzania. With elections approaching, the international community must pressure the government to:
1. Investigate abductions transparently,
2. Repeal oppressive cyber laws, and,
3. End impunity for security forces.
As TLS warns, failure to act risks normalizing a “constitutional collapse”.
🔍 The Abduction And Torture of Edgar Mwakabela “Sativa” Shocked A Nation.
Mwakalebela: A Timeline of Terror.
Edgar Mwakabela (known online as Sativa), a Tanzanian social media activist on X, was abducted on “June 23, 2024”, in Dar es Salaam’s Ubungo area. His ordeal unfolded as follows:
⚫ Abduction and Initial Torture (June 23–24, 2024).
– Abduction:
Three men intercepted Mwakalebela while he was switching motorcycle taxis. They handcuffed him, confiscated his phones, and threw him into a vehicle.
– Interrogation at Oysterbay Police Station:
He was taken to a secluded area nicknamed “the workshop” within the station. Captors questioned him about his activism, demanding, “What did you do to upset the big people?” They also referenced his criticism of the ruling CCM party and advocacy for traders’ rights.
– Transfer to Arusha:
Blindfolded and deprived of food/water, he was driven to an unidentified police station in Arusha on June 24. His captors altered their speech patterns to confuse him.
⛓️ Escalated Torture in Arusha (June 25–26, 2024).
– Brutal Beatings:
Mwakabela was beaten with the flat side of a machete on his back, head, thighs, and legs. His captors accused him of “plotting against the government” with activists Martin Maranja Masese and Boniface Jacob.
– Mock Execution Threat:
He was forced to kneel while a gun was held to his head. Captors debated whether to shoot him or let wildlife “finish the job“.
☠️ Near-Fatal Dumping in Katavi (June 27, 2024).
– Journey to Katavi National Park:
Driven overnight to the Ikuu River area—a zone dense with hippos, crocodiles, and lions.
– Execution Attempt:
At dawn, Mwakabela was shot in the jaw at close range. The bullet shattered his jawbone, and he was left bleeding in the swamp. Captors assumed animals would consume his body.
– Miraculous Survival:
Despite severe injuries, he crawled to a road. Wildlife rangers from TANAPA found him and rushed him to Kibaoni Health Center. X-rays later confirmed a broken jaw and leg.
💥 Why the Case Shocked Tanzania.
1. State Security Involvement:
Mwakabela identified Oyster Bay Police Station as the abduction site. Politician Zitto Kabwe publicly challenged police leadership: “How can a police station be complicit in such a crime?“.
2. Political Retribution:
His abduction linked to his activism:
– Mobilizing trader boycotts against exploitative levies.
– Criticizing CCM leaders and police corruption on X (Twitter) .
3. Broader Pattern of Abductions:
– Part of 83+ documented disappearances (2022–2024), including opposition figures like Ali Kibao (found dead) and Deusdedith Soka (still missing).
– UN experts noted “200+ enforced disappearances since 2019”, calling Tanzania’s tactics “South American-style repression“.
4. Public Fundraising Controversy:
– President Samia donated “₠35 million” for Mwakabela’s surgery, prompting accusations of “political image-washing“.
– Online debates erupted over transparency, with activist Taivina James questioning why politicians publicized donations late.
🌍 National and International Backlash.
– UN Condemnation:
Experts cited Mwakabela’s case as evidence of Tanzania’s use of “torture and enforced disappearance to silence opposition” ahead of 2025 elections.
– Regional Implications:
Kenyan activist Boniface Mwangi and Uganda’s Agather Atuhaire—detained while observing opposition trials—reported sexual assault by Tanzanian security forces.
– Domestic Protests:
The hashtag “#WhereIsSativa” mobilized lawyers (e.g., Tito Magoti) and citizens, reflecting dwindling trust in police.
📅 Key Events Timeline: Sativa’s Ordeal and Aftermath
*Table synthesizes critical milestones from abduction to recovery*:
| No. | Date. | Event. | Significance. |
| 1.0 | June 23, 2024. | Abducted in Ubungo, taken to Oysterbay Police Station. | State facilities implicated in abduction. |
| 2.0 | June 24. | Transferred to Arusha; torture intensifies. | Captors used coded language to obscure motives. |
| 3.0 | June 27. | Shot in Katavi National Park; found his way out of the Park before being transported to the hospital. | Survival exposed execution plot, named a key perpetrator in the Dar-es-Salaam police force. |
| 4.0 | July 2024. | Public fundraising raises “₠10M+”; President Samia contributes “₠35M” | Medical aid politicized; debates on transparency. |
| 5.0 | Sept 2024 | TLS symposium highlights cases among 83+ disappearances. | Judge Makaramba condemns “Ostrich Doctrine” of state denial. |
⚖️ Systemic Implications: Democracy in Peril
Mwakabela’s case epitomized Tanzania’s “accelerating authoritarianism” under President Samia:
– Election Crackdown:
CHADEMA barred from the 2025 elections; opposition leader Tundu Lissu was charged with treason.
– Digital Repression:
Cybercrimes Act used to jail critics (e.g., Shadrack Chaula, jailed for burning Samia’s photo).
– Culture of Impunity:
Police Commander Kaster Ngonyani promised “details after medical reports,” yet no arrests followed.
As Tanzanian commentator Tony Alfred K warned: “Hope is dangerous… We cling to promises, but the state kidnaps in daylight”. Mwakabela’s survival became a symbol of resistance—but without accountability, it underscored a nation’s descent into “competitive authoritarianism“.
Soka’s Disappearance Still Baffles A Nation!
The disappearance of Deusdedith Soka, a prominent CHADEMA youth leader, remains one of Tanzania’s most haunting unsolved cases, exposing a systematic pattern of state-sponsored repression ahead of the 2025 elections. Below is a detailed analysis of the case and its broader implications:
🔍 1. Circumstances of Disappearance.
– Abduction on August 18, 2024:
Soka was seized alongside colleagues Jacob Godwin Mlay (CHADEMA secretary) and Frank Mbise (motorcycle taxi driver) in Dar es Salaam’s Buza area. They were lured to Temeke Police Station under the pretense of retrieving Soka’s confiscated motorcycle.
– Prior Threats:
Days earlier, Soka publicly warned of an assassination plot on social media, stating: “They plan to harm me and make me disappear completely… If it happens, do not cry, but let it fuel our fight“.
– Political Context:
His disappearance occurred while organizing nationwide protests against abductions of opposition figures and demanding electoral reforms.
🕵️ 2. Evidence of State Involvement.
– Police Lure:
Witnesses confirmed that individuals identifying as Temeke police officers contacted Soka to arrange the motorcycle pickup—a tactic consistent with documented state abduction methods.
– Cover-Up Attempts:
– Soka’s phone (under police custody since 2023) sent texts claiming he had “left the country voluntarily“—a message experts deemed fabricated to discredit his activism.
Similar exculpation was parlayed by now the ex IGP Simon Nyakoro Sirro to dismiss the disappearance of Ben Saanane, a Chadema personal assistant to the then Chadema Chairperson Freeman Aikel Mbowe. Today, Saanane’s whereabouts remain a mystery!
– Police denied custody despite family testimonies and call logs linking officers to the abduction.
– Systemic Pattern:
Soka’s case is among 83+ enforced disappearances documented by the Tanganyika Law Society since 2022, with CHADEMA members disproportionately targeted.
⚖️ 3. Judicial and Investigative Failures.
– Dismissed Habeas Corpus Petition:
The High Court rejected a lawsuit demanding police produce Soka, claiming “insufficient evidence” despite cellphone data pointing to police involvement.
– Police Denial:
In June 2025, police spokesperson David Misime dismissed abduction claims as “self-orchestrated disappearances,” ignoring Soka’s case in official statements. He blamed the victim!
– Stalled Probes:
No arrests have been made, and investigations remain “ongoing” for 11 months—a delay activists attribute to political interference.
💀 4. Broader Pattern of Political Repression.
Soka’s disappearance fits Tanzania’s escalating crackdown on dissent:
– Targeted Opposition:
– Tundu Lissu:
Charged with treason for election boycott calls.
– Ali Kibao:
Senior CHADEMA official abducted and killed with acid in September 2024.
– Dioniz Kipanya:
Still missing after criticizing presidential convoys.
– Digital Suppression:
Social media platform X was restricted during discussions about Soka’s disappearance.
Table: Key Unresolved Cases Linked to Soka’s Disappearance.
| No. | Victim. | Role. | Incident. | Status (as of July 2025). |
| 1.0 | Deusdedith Soka. | CHADEMA Youth Leader. | Abducted at police station, August 2024. | Missing, no suspects charged. |
| 2.0 | Ali Kibao. | CHADEMA Strategist. | Abducted, killed with acid, September 2024. | No arrests despite presidential “order”. |
| 3.0 | Dioniz Kipanya. | CHADEMA Rukwa Leader. | Disappeared after criticizing Samia, July 2024. | Missing, police deny involvement. |
| 4.0 | Shadrack Chaula. | Social Media Activist. | Abducted after jail release, August 2024. | Missing, police cite “personal motives“ |
🌍 5. National and International Repercussions.
– Public Outrage:
Hashtags like #WhereIsSoka and #JusticeForSoka trended nationwide, with protests demanding accountability.
– International Condemnation:
– UN Experts:
Cited Tanzania’s use of “enforced disappearance to silence opposition“.
– Amnesty International/Human Rights Watch:
Linked Soka’s case to systemic repression and electoral violence.
– Erosion of Trust:
Catholic leaders like Father Charles Kitima openly accused police of freezing investigations, noting: “Soka vanished in a police station, yet they deny he was ever there!“.
💎 Conclusion: A Symbol of Democratic Erosion.
Soka’s disappearance epitomizes Tanzania’s descent into authoritarianism under President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Despite early promises of reform, her administration has weaponized security forces, judiciary, and cyber laws to crush dissent.
The state’s silence—and active obstruction—in Soka’s case signals a grim reality: “vanishing activists have become the regime’s tool to terrorize a nation”. As Tanzania approaches the October 2025 elections, Soka’s unresolved fate stands as a stark warning of the cost of resistance.
Mdude Nyagali’s Abduction And Disappearance In His Home At Night Rocked A Nation!
🔍 The Abduction of Mdude Nyagali: A Nation Shaken by State-Sponsored Terror.
⚫ The Night of Terror: May 2, 2025.
– Violent Home Invasion:
At 2:00 AM, armed men identifying themselves as police officers broke into Mdude Nyagali’s home in Mbeya’s Lwambi neighborhood. They assaulted him with blunt objects, leaving a pool of blood, and abducted him in front of his wife, Sije Mbughi, and their infant child. Eyewitnesses reported hearing his cries for help but feared intervention.
– Pre-Abduction Threats:
Days earlier, Mdude posted on social media that police officer “Shaaban Charo” had been bribing locals to track his address. He publicly challenged the police: “If you have legal issues, contact me directly!”.
– Immediate Aftermath:
CHADEMA organized search parties across Mbeya’s forests, valleys, and hospitals. Despite blood evidence and witness accounts, police denied custody, calling social media claims “unverified” .
⚖️ Judicial Complicity: The High Court’s Dismissal.
On July 9, 2025, the Mbeya High Court dismissed Sije Mbughi’s habeas corpus petition seeking Mdude’s return. The ruling exposed systemic judicial abdication:
– Ignored Evidence:
– Eyewitness testimony from Sije and their toddler, who witnessed the abduction.
– Police admit that Shaaban Charo (named in the lawsuit) was under investigation for involvement.
– Bloodstains and a viral video of a man confirming police bribes to locate Mdude.
– Parallel to Soka’s Case:
The court echoed its 2024 dismissal of CHADEMA youth leader “Deusdedith Soka”’s disappearance, despite WhatsApp evidence proving police lured him to a station.
– Intimidation of Lawyers:
Mdude’s attorney, Boniface Mwabukusi (President of the Tanganyika Law Society), received death threats: “Prepare to leave behind a widow and orphans“.
📉 Broader Pattern: State-Sponsored Repression.
Mdude’s abduction is part of Tanzania’s escalating crackdown on dissent ahead of October 2025 elections:
– History of Targeting:
Mdude endured “four prior abductions” (2016, 2019, 2024, 2025), documented in his memoir “Five Years of Pain”. In 2019, he was dumped in a village after torture.
– CHADEMA Persecution:
– Deusdedith Soka:
Abducted August 2024 after organizing anti-abduction protests; still missing.
– Ali Kibao:
Senior CHADEMA official murdered with acid in September 2024.
– Aisha Machano:
Abducted and tortured in October 2024.
Table: Documented Enforced Disappearances in Tanzania (2024–2025).
| No. | Victim. | Date. | Status. | Evidence Ignored |
| 1.0 | Mdude Nyagali. | May 2, 2025. | Missing. | Bloodstains, witness accounts, police bribes. |
| 2.0 | Deusdedith Soka. | Aug 18, 2024. | Missing. | WhatsApp luring messages from police. |
| 3.0 | Ali Kibao. | Sept 2024. | Murdered (acid attack). | Witnesses saw police stop his bus & fellow bus passengers testified of his abduction by balaclava-covered unknown people. |
| 4.0 | Aisha Machano. | Oct 2024. | Survived torture to testify against it. | Abductors interrogated her about anti-govt activities. |
🏛️ State Response: Denial, Distraction, and Intimidation.
– Police Threats:
After CHADEMA named Shaaban Charo as a suspect, police issued a statement warning against “baseless accusations” and threatening legal action against accusers.
– Investigation Theater:
Police claimed a “task force” was dispatched to Mbeya but made no arrests. Regional Commander Benjamin Kuzaga deflected: “Which police unit? We need reliable information!”.
– Political Gaslighting:
President Samia donated ₠35 million to torture survivor Edgar “Sativa” Mwakabela’s medical fund—a move activists labelled “image-washing” amid state-sponsored abductions.
🌍 National and International Backlash.
– Grassroots Mobilization:
– CHADEMA launched sit-ins at Mbeya police stations and offered a “10 million TZS reward”:for information .
– Hashtags like #BringBackMdudeAlive trended, with protests demanding: “Let this be the last abduction!”.
– Global Condemnation:
– “Amnesty International” linked Mdude’s case to the torture of Kenyan/Ugandan activists observing Tundu Lissu’s trial. They were stripped, beaten, and dumped at borders.
– UN Experts cited Tanzania’s “South American-style repression,” noting 200+ enforced disappearances since 2019.
💎 Conclusion: A Democracy in Peril.
Mdude Nyagali’s abduction epitomizes Tanzania’s “accelerating authoritarianism” under President Samia:
– Judicial Collapse:
Courts ignore evidence to protect state impunity.
– Election-Year Terror:
Abductions silence critics before the October 2025 vote, with CHADEMA barred from participating.
– International Complicity:
Global powers’ tepid responses risk normalizing repression. As the Tanganyika Law Society warns, Tanzania faces a “constitutional collapse” unless accountability is prioritized.
Mdude’s fate—like Soka’s and Kibao’s—is a litmus test for Tanzania’s democracy. Without urgent intervention, “disappearance” will remain the regime’s weapon to crush dissent.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
