Esther Bulaya, a former MP for Bunda constituency is an inspirational figure. She has seen it all in Tanzania’s fragmented political environment. She has navigated it in a manner, at all times, to ensure she was available for public service. A remarkable feat for a woman despite inchoate age, cultural and gender bias in Tanzania’s turbulent political arena.
She is one of the very few politicians who have refused to be enslaved by our new tribes of “political parties.” Her loyalty isn’t in political parties but in service to the nation.
From this Bulaya’s doctrine is easier to discern why she is who she is. If she feels short-changed she takes action to flip the injustices. That may mean exhausting internal political remedies, and when those fail to give her a relief she is looking for, she moves on. It is her way of ensuring that her impact in public service isn’t thwarted by internal party wrangling that may obscure and overlook her true talents.
She has fought a number of intellectual, wit and stamina duels with the current CCM Vice chairperson, Steven Wasira inside and outside CCM there was only one winner: Esther Bulaya. Even when Wasira hounded her to High Court to dispute her Bunda parliamentary win there was Tundu Lissu of Chadema as her legal connoisseur to ensure she kept her prize to the chagrin of Wasira and his supporters.
Esther Bulaya’s return to CCM is strategic and well thought out. She already put roots inside Bunda and within CCM national structures. She has name recognition, and a renowned indefatigable assets very much appreciated by her people.
Unlike her friend Hon. Halima Mdee, Bulaya is a CCM insider and knows CCM’s ways inside out. It is easier to see Bulaya elbowing out the current MP who is devoid of her charisma, intellect, energy and resoluteness.
Mdee’s path back to parliament is trident, so far. Mdee has been keeping us guessing of her next move. She has at least been generous enough to divulge that she isn’t a disciple of “No Reform, No Election.” pitting her against her party leader, Tundu Lissu. Mdee signalled that after the dissolution of parliament she would decide which vehicle would catapult her back to the House.
Hon. Mdee may find CCM a tough nut to crack since she has never been a CCM insider, and will find the primaries a bit reluctant to embrace an outsider. So, despite her buddy Hon. Bulaya seamlessly is back in the once “chama cha wote”, Mdee’s path to parliament has to consider either Act Wazalendo or CHAUMMA to avouch her candidature.
Both paths have ups and downs. Act Wazalendo is a bit hostile to CCM but not to the level of Chadema. CHAUMMA is regarded as a CCM proxy so it may be more attractive to get her back in the House.
Never count out CCM to swoop the elegant yet fiercely independent Hon. Halima Mdee.
This is my own hunch based on my assessment of the behind the scene activities. Not long ago, we feasted on the photos of President Samia Suluhu Hassan paying a courtesy visit to Halima Mdee’s mom who was sick and hospitalized.
My prognosis at a time didn’t lead me to consider the impossibility: Hon. Mdee joined CCM for the first time but now I sense the possibilities are knocking the door. In the Magufuli’s doctrine, after Hon. Lazarus Nyalandu moved to Chadema from CCM, enticed Chadema councillors and MPs to spurn Chadema for CCM. Initially, it was “tit for tat” but later it evolved into CCM policy of discrediting Chadema’s aura revolving around “People’s power.”
It could turn out to be a missing piece in this confounding jigsaw. The camaraderie I perceived there could have been a telltale of magnificent things to come: Both Esther Bulaya and Halima Mdee are CCM MPs. Chadema will not have a last laugh if this happens. Their rejects are CCM assets, that would be a horrific turn of events for Chadema!
If this analysis is correct and I have no way of verifying this, Hon. Mdee could find CCM worthy of the gamble. This may happen if top CCM leaders are cozy of reaping from Chadema best talent from some of those 19 female rebellious Chadema MPs.
The postulate is based on Magufuli’s desire to bleed white, and discredit Chadema as the “”people’s party”. This is how it may play out. Hon. Mdee joins CCM and whether she wins the Kawe constituency primary or not the central committee picks her to represent CCM in Kawe. I don’t know why I didn’t see this possibility much earlier, possibly I was clouded by CHAUMMA’s chances in Kawe.
This theory is partially supported by a number of other factors. Once her political mentor, Freeman Mbowe, was knocked out of his Chadema’s perch, her stay in Chadema with the irascible and erratic Tundu Lissu in the helm was untenable.
Another reason for pushing Hon. Mdee to CCM could be a lack of powerful competitors in CCM Kawe primary. The scion of former prime minister Joseph Sinde Warioba, Kipi, has not resigned as a D.C to run for Kawe Constituency. His dad is no longer in good books with CCM due to his constant meddling in election laws.
That may dilate why Kipi is “no show” in Kawe primaries despite locking horns with Mdee in the Kawe elections in 2010, and convincingly lost to her. Mdee was by then Chadema luminary while Kipi was CCM upstart. Kipi may have done his calculus and came to a bountiful conclusion better keep what he already has rather than seeking what may not be available for him. With his dad marginalized, nobody may blame him for this cautious decision.
Another reason that makes Hon. Mdee at least contemplating CCM as her next parachute to parliament is her friend Hon. Esther Mdee. Their friendship blossomed post 2020 elections having to confront Chadema’s hostility and they had to stick together during tough times of trials and tribulations. This imminent challenge may convince them CCM is much safer sailing back to the House than gambling with the “wild, wild vagaries” of opposition politics. Who really knows except to say time is the best teacher?
I really hope I am wrong on this “intuitive extrapolation” but what do I really know?
Let’s recap my tentative prognosis:
Based on my own surmises and contextual analysis, here’s a comparative assessment of Esther Bulaya’s political reintegration into CCM and Halima Mdee’s current political trajectory:
🔵 I. Esther Bulaya’s Strategic Return to CCM.
1. Roots and Compatibility.
– Bulaya has historical ties to CCM, having represented “Bunda constituency” under its banner. Her parliamentary contributions emphasized industrialization, vocational training (VETA), and tourism development—aligning with CCM’s economic agenda.
– Her expulsion from CHADEMA in 2022 alongside 18 other MPs solidified her opposition ties, making CCM a natural “nyumbani” (homecoming).
2. Grassroots Advantage.
– Bulaya retains “strong local support in Bunda”. Her speeches highlight gratitude to constituents for electing her “despite age and gender,” indicating deep community connections.
– Unlike Mdee, Bulaya navigates CCM’s internal dynamics adeptly, having previously defeated CCM heavyweight Steven Wasira in electoral disputes.
3. Policy Alignment.
– Her advocacy for “long-term development planning” (e.g., 50-year national strategies) mirrors CCM’s emphasis on infrastructure and industrialization. She will have to tone down on electoral reforms, previously her favourite talking point.
🔴 II. Halima Mdee’s Complex Path Forward.
1. Limited Options with CHADEMA.
– Mdee was expelled from CHADEMA in 2022 after defying the party’s rejection of special-seat parliamentary appointments. Her rift with “Tundu Lissu” (CHADEMA’s current leader) makes reconciliation improbable. Moreover, Hon. Mdee has made it abundantly clear, she is not a believer of election boycotts setting herself afar from Tundu Lissu’s vision of belligerence to secure his loftier political wishes.
2. CCM Entry Barriers.
– Unlike Bulaya, Mdee lacks CCM lineage and roots. Her tenure as Kawe MP (2010-2020) was marked by fierce criticism of CCM policies, including corruption in infrastructure projects and agricultural failures. CCM may have to swallow their pride and let her in if the wider aims is discrediting Chadema’s mojo fuelling “No Reform, No Election.”
– CCM primaries in Kawe favor insiders. While President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s visit to Mdee’s ailing mother sparked speculation, no evidence confirms CCM’s intent of recruitment. However, that could change if she joins CCM. With her decision to elope in one of those political entities, the wait may not be longer.
3. Alternative Pathways.
– ACT-Wazalendo:
Formerly led by Zitto Kabwe, the defectors’ magnet of ACT-Wazalendo – this party has absorbed ex-CCM members (e.g., Bernard MemMem.amd the whole wing of the late CUF Secretary General Maalim Seif, Mdee could leverage its growing opposition presence. It is not lost that the two were buddies during their parliamentary days of 2010 – 2015. They could rekindle those vibrant heartstrings in defiance of CCM ironclad control of the electoral process.
– CHAUMMA:
A CCM-aligned party in Mainland Tanzania. Mdee’s use as a “proxy candidate” here is plausible but would require recalibration of her political base and identity. That may include trolling Chadema’s “No Reform, No Election” as not only doomsday but also impractical.
⚖️ III. Comparative Analysis: Bulaya vs. Mdee.
| No. | Factor. | Esther Bulaya. | Halima Mdee. |
| 1.0 | Party History. | Deep CCM roots; expelled from CHADEMA. | Lifelong CHADEMA member; expelled in 2022. |
| 2.0 | Constituency Strength. | Strong grassroots network in Bunda. | Kawe base hectic by 2020 controversial loss to Gwajima. |
| 3.0 | CCM Viability. | High: Policy alignment and internal familiarity | Low: Outsider status and history of anti-CCM rhetoric. |
| 4.0 | Alternative Paths. | None needed; CCM return secured. | ACT-Wazalendo or CHAUMMA; Kawe re-election unlikely except CCM bigwigs sanction her to discredit Chadema’s “No Reform No Election” mantra. |
💎 IV. Conclusion.
– Esther Bulaya has successfully leveraged her CCM background and local influence to reclaim her political “nyumbani.” Her reintegration reflects CCM’s acceptance of prodigal members with compatible agendas.
– Halima Mdee faces narrower options. ACT-Wazalendo offers the most viable route to parliament, though her ability to win Kawe—now held by CCM’s Josephat Gwajima—remains doubtful. Gwajima political fortunes with CCM are over. He is unlikely to attempt to retain his parliamentary seat. He has enough in his intray: restoration of his deregistered ministries of “Ufufuo na Uzima”. To Reverend Gwajima his ministries trump all political goodies, so he will stick with evangelism rather than risk it all.
The prospect of joining CCM appears remote unless top leadership intervenes to recruit opposition talent—a tactic previously used under Magufuli but currently unverified.
Mdee’s next move likely hinges on ACT-Wazalendo’s capacity to absorb CHADEMA dissidents and challenge CCM’s urban strongholds. Meanwhile, Bulaya’s CCM return exemplifies the party’s selective embrace of former opponents who align with its core ideologies.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
