In politics, one thing is certain: “uncertainty”. It is in this light that a former powerful figure in the Magufuli administration, Ambassador Dr. Bashiru Ally Kakurwa, finds himself ensnared. During the Magufuli administration, the sky was blue to Dr. Bashiru, but now heavy clouds have misted his once bright political career!
From nowhere, he was plucked from the University of Dar-es-Salaam, and appointed CCM national secretary general, and later he doubled as the Chief Secretary. His double allocation stirred a quiet debate about the separation of the ruling party and government functions. Some predicted he would remain in the prestigious government docket and leave the lacklustre CCM post to another person.
Before that, hell broke loose: His mentor in Magufuli passed away, and Bashiru’s political fortunes dramatically diminished from that instance. Magufuli’s successor, President Samia Suluhu Hassan, wasted no time removing him from both positions but gently offered him a fallback parachute that sent Bashiru into parliament.
In the beginning, Bashiru was assertive in the Augusta House, but as we were nearing the general elections, he cast a dejected figure in the House. He seems to be cracking his brains for his next move. His continued stay in parliament depends solely on the decision of his appointer, President Samia Suluhu Hassan. Even if he decides to challenge the incumbent in any constituency, President Samia Suluhu Hassan still will have the final say during the CCM nominations.
Where is Bashiru’s political future of a man who, during Magufuli’s reign, seemed to be heading to the moon and beyond? This is his latest dilemma, which this article will attempt to discern.
The political trajectory of Bashiru Ally Kakurwa—once a towering figure in John Magufuli’s administration—exemplifies how abrupt power shifts can redefine careers in Tanzanian politics. His journey from academic prominence to political obscurity under Samia Suluhu Hassan reveals critical dynamics of factionalism, patronage, and institutional vulnerability. Below is a structured analysis of his rise, fall, and uncertain future:
⚡ 1. Meteoric Rise Under Magufuli.
– From Academia to Power Center:
Bashiru was plucked from his role as a University of Dar es Salaam lecturer in 2018 to become CCM Secretary General, tasked with party discipline and asset recovery.
During his tenure, he commenced auditing of the party’s past five years’ operations, and according to his assessment of the audited reports, had implicated many CCM bigwigs of fraud and misappropriation of CCM coffers.
The audited report was never implemented, but after Magufuli’s unexpected demise, Dr. Bashiru became a marked man with his presence in the government machinery intolerable, leading to his abrupt demotion. He had just stepped into too many shoes, and his political enemies came to exact revenge on him. This is now his watershed: how to respond in a politically hostile predicament.
In politics, like elsewhere, when neighbours sense a downfall, few will risk everything to rescue you. Most obeying the laws of nature, out of self-preservation, will distance themselves from you lest they be deemed to be forging a resistance of some sort against those who are pulling the strings. It narrates why he is a lonely figure in parliament and elsewhere.
– Dual Roles Spark Debate:
In February 2020, Magufuli appointed him Chief Secretary (head of civil service), merging high-level party and government functions. Critics argued this blurred institutional boundaries and concentrated power would erode institutional checks and balances.
– Symbol of Magufuli’s Trust:
His rapid ascent reflected Magufuli’s preference for loyalists over established CCM elites. Analysts noted his effectiveness but questioned his preparedness for bureaucratic leadership.
A more sobriety in bureaucratic experience would have led him not to dig deeper in CCM murky past since by doing so was inviting and courting unnecessary enmity.
He is facing similar institutional rejection akin to his fellow MPs, such as Mwita Waitara of Tarime Rural, Mrisho Gambo of Arusha Municipal and Luhaga Kisesa of Kisesa constituencies. There is no place to hide for the golden fish in today’s CCM swamp.
Had he taken trouble to peruse “handing over” notes of the former secretary general one Rashid Mfaume Kawawa under duress to audit CCM accounts this is what he had responded:
“…hesabu za chama tawala human hazikaguliwi…nani anayeweza kuikagua CCM chama ambacho kimeshika hatamu ya dola?”
It is imperative to note Nyerere was the chairperson and when he heard that reaction, he winced but didn’t overturn Kawawa’s fiat. It remains a law even today despite CAG pretending to render the “unthinkable.”
Moreover, Bashiru’s auditing of CCM’s clutter was under zero pressure making his current sorry state qualifying as “self- inflicted.”
⚠️ 2. Precipitous Fall After Magufuli’s Death.
– Exclusion from Transition Inner Circle:
During Magufuli’s final days in March 2021, security chiefs (including intelligence head Diwani Athumani) bypassed Vice President Samia and first informed PM Kassim Majaliwa and Bashiru. This sidelining hinted at Bashiru’s alignment with anti-Samia factions.
There were unsubstantiated rumours of overt orders to move billions of money from B.O.T to personal overseas accounts. While his name was not specifically mentioned as part of scheming looting; but, the buck stopped in his office as a top civil servant. The grapevine could also have been a calculated “smear campaign” to tarnish his good image. This is no strange for a “graft slayer” being implicated by the very malfeasance he was determined to uproot.
– Swift Removal by Samia:
Within weeks, Samia dismissed him as Chief Secretary and CCM Secretary General, citing a “reshuffle.” He was offered a consolation role as a nominated MP—a cataclysmic, and unprecedented demotion. He kept his Magufuli-era ambassadorial role now a mere symbolic of what could have happened had Magufuli still been around. He could have succeeded him, too, in 2030. That is what Bashiru lost. There were those who questioned his citizenship, stoking even more fire to the hot furnace, a controversy I will dodge for now.
– Erosion of Influence:
Though initially vocal in parliament, his presence dwindled as Samia marginalized Magufuli loyalists. By 2023, he was described as a “lonely figure” with waning relevance.
🧩 3. Current Dilemmas and Limited Options.
– Dependency on Samia’s Patronage:
His parliamentary seat relies entirely on presidential nomination. Samia’s control over CCM nominations means she could block him from contesting any constituency in 2025.
Even if she doesn’t, he lacks a foothold in any constituency to make meaningful challenges to those already entrenched in their constituencies save for new ones, still unoccupied albeit the incumbents have begun pivoting to them complicating his path back to the Augusta House.
– Factional Isolation:
Samia revived the influence of Jakaya Kikwete’s camp (e.g., Abdulrahman Kinana, January Makamba) while purging Magufuli allies. Bashiru lacks ties to this resurgent old guard.
– Strategic Invisibility:
His low profile suggests either deliberate caution or deposition into oblivion. Opposition figures like Zitto Kabwe gained visibility, while Bashiru retreated—a stark contrast to his earlier assertiveness.
🔮 4. Possible Paths Forward.
– Electoral Gambit:
Challenging an incumbent in his home constituency (e.g., Bukoba Rural) would require CCM backing. Samia’s dominance over party structures makes approval unlikely.
– Diplomatic Exit:
An ambassadorial role—a common “golden parachute“—is plausible but constrained by his tarnished reputation among Samia loyalists.
– Academic Return:
Rejoining academia offers stability but little political redemption. His specialization in political science could leverage post-mortem insights on “Magufulism”. He could also consider writing his memoirs that will attract plenty of scrutiny and keep him in the national political limelight.
– Party Rebuilding:
If CCM fractures after 2025 elections, he could align with Magufuli nostalgists. However, Samia’s reforms have consolidated her authority, minimizing rebel leverage.
💎 5. Broader Implications.
Bashiru’s decline mirrors Tanzania’s shift from Magufuli’s authoritarian centralization to Samia’s tactical pluralism. His fate underscores:
– The peril of overreliance on a single patron in faction-driven systems.
– How constitutional succession rituals mask “behind-the-scenes” power struggles.
– Samia’s selective rehabilitation of Magufuli-era figures (e.g., Paul Makonda) excludes those perceived as threats—placing Bashiru in a “high-risk, low-reward” category.
Conclusion.
Bashiru Ally’s career hangs on Samia’s calculus for the 2025 elections, and beyond. His Magufuli-era prominence is now a liability, and survival hinges on either unobtrusive loyalty to the new order or exit from frontline politics. His trajectory affirms that in Tanzanian politics, proximity to power guarantees nothing—a lesson for future aspirants.
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
