Legitimacy is everything in multiparty democracy. It is not the declarations of the INEC that have lost all credibility. These are facts, and what you do with them is your business. The electorate has no faith in INEC and perceives it as an executive tool to massively rig their votes.
Nothing anybody says will change this perception, and politics is ruled by perceptions. Behind these hostile perceptions lie grim economic stats. We have borrowed too much, and now we can’t help our youth find and stand on their feet. We have expanded the public sector to unsustainable levels.
We have torched public policy instruments that unify us, which are free medical services and free education. Nothing has hollowed CCM’s public trust more than cthe ommercialization of health and education. Nyerere ruled for 24 years and 8 months almost uninterrupted because he understood this principle: free education and healthcare are the greatest socioeconomic equalizers.
This article pays attention to why winning the 2025 without electoral reforms will vilify whoever emerges a winner. He will not have the public support behind him. He will walk a lonely safari towards 2030. Without citizen’s full cooperation, the economy will tumble. Brace yourself for this bumpy ride.
Our budget is stupid to the core!
Don’t listen to economists who aver when it comes to whether the debt burden is bearable pay attention to GDP debt ratio. The problem with this neo-economic line of thinking is that GDP is not clearing our debt obligations. And the recurrent budget does!
According to the latest figures from the Treasury, out of every one hundred shillings set aside in the recurrent budget, 73 shillings service the national debt. That means 73% of the recurrent budget is gobbled by honouring debt obligations!
As if this isn’t bad news already, then here comes a public servant who takes 25 shillings for every 100 shillings set aside for the recurrent budget. That is 25% of the recurrent budget is swirled by public servants. After taking care of debt and feeding the mouths of public servants, we are left with 2% of the recurrent budget to meet our basic needs.
This is why both education and health have been commercialized. The real reason is to ensure public service and lenders are paid in time. It is shouldering more of a burden on poor Tanzanians that the standard of living of public servants and lenders is exempt at optimal shape.
Somehow, our budget has reduced us into not only paupers but modern-day slaves. We are slaving to maintain the profane lifestyles of public servants and their sorority in lenders. It narrates why any public servant who rebels is fired forthwith. In the case of the former speaker, Job Ndugai, who had trolled foreign borrowing, was quickly sacked, but his reasoning was quirky, but the main point remains: borrowers are surety of creditors.
Ndugai urged more taxation, and that is where he derailed, knowing our problem lies in over expenditures. Understandable, Ndugai is allegedly accused of burning Tshs 2 Bill in six months of treatment in India. No wonder cutting costs wasn’t in his mind. Why don’t we criminalize overseas medical treatment as a cost-cutting measure that beats the odds?
Former president Jakaya Kikwete reasoned without overseas treatment, our leaders would die, and before him, Mkapa said he took Nyerere to St. Thomas Hospital for treatment in the UK because Tanzanians would not have understood him had Nyerere treated locally!
What kind of reasoning was this? Was it Nyerere who declared at the UN in the early 1960s that Tanganyika was ready for self-rule? Does self-rule not include local treatment? While Kikwete argued overseas treatment would heal our leaders, little did he remember Nyerere died in London despite the availability of top-notch medical services.
Bima ya Afya is unsustainable and is craving for more money pressuring an introduction of a much heavier taxation regime now targeting our digital financial transactions after purloining big miners, Gaming/gambling levies, among others. However, the real problems will never be solved by a higher taxation regime but by abandoning NHIF altogether. Facts on NHIF indicate it is a swamp that cries out aloud to be drained through abolishment. There is no other way out of this quagmire. Let us quickly peek at what is really happening there:
– Current NHIF cost: $38.58/beneficiary.
– Expanding coverage to 50% by 2050 requires $2.27 billion extra, but new taxes lack transparency in revenue potential.
– Administrative costs drains the fund:
Historical schemes like iCHF saw 70-80% of revenue consumed by recurrent budgets (salaries, perks).
Enforcement Feasibility:
– Penalties for non-payment (e.g., jail terms) are unworkable for irregular-income households.
– Rwanda’s successful enforcement (80% coverage) relied on local penalties (e.g., livestock confiscation), but Tanzania’s larger geography and population make this impractical.
Systemic Risks:
– Declining government/donor health spending:
Since 2016, state contributions have fallen while out-of-pocket costs have risen to 34% of health expenditures.
– Elite capture:
Politicians often seek overseas treatment, draining funds (e.g., 2 billion TZS spent on one official’s care), undermining public trust.
Funding tertiary education through a revolving fund is a sick joke!
HESLB was allocated Tshs 778 Bill in 2024/25 but debt collection stood at Tshs
The Controller and Auditor General (CAG) 2024 audit report cited in, the following unauthorized expenditures by Tanzania’s Higher Education Students Loans Board (HESLB) were identified:
💰 Unauthorized Expenditures (2022/2023 Financial Year):
1. Staff Emoluments:
– Amount: TZS 1.11 billion.
– Violation: Exceeded approved budget allocations without authorization.
2. Car and Housing Loans to Staff:
– Amount: TZS 2.14 billion.
– Violation:
Granted without following established procedures or securing proper approvals.
📊 Systemic Financial Issues.
The audit further highlighted HESLB’s broader financial crisis:
– Loan Defaults:
85% default rate (far exceeding the 10% microfinance industry benchmark).
– Outstanding Loans:
Ballooned from TZS 552.97 billion (2015/16) to TZS 4.84 trillion (2022/23)—a 775% increase in 7 years.
– Portfolio Risk:
85% of loans are classified as “at risk,” indicating near-total collapse of recovery efforts.
⚠️ Governance Failures:
– The CAG report criticized HESLB for inadequate collections, ineffective tracing of self-employed beneficiaries (recovery rates of only 2.8–8.1%), and a 23% average annual growth in unpaid loans.
– These unauthorized expenditures exemplify institutional mismanagement contributing to HESLB’s status as a “financial burden” on Tanzania’s treasury.
💎 Conclusion.
The CAG audit confirms TZS 1.11 billion in unauthorized staff payments and TZS 2.14 billion in improperly issued car/housing loans during 2022/2023.
These findings underscore systemic governance failures and financial unsustainability, fueling calls to dissolve HESLB. For real-time updates, applicants are directed to HESLB’s official channels.
My question: why should we keep this cash cow that doesn’t lay golden eggs? Prudent leadership informs we have to end this parasitism before our face.
Public servants corrupts INEC:
Public servants of any sort shouldn’t be part of INEC because they have allegiance to the politicians whose performance will never tested in elections.
Public servants take orders from politicians in power as a result cannot be viewed as impartial.
Until the day, election laws proscribe public servants from polluting our elections with their conflict of interest INEC is not yet independent!
Having INEC tamped to the rim with public servants has condemned our elections into rigged ones even before one vote is cast in the ballot box.
Henceforth, whoever triumphs in the 2025 elections is devoid to govern. Anything else is daylight dreaming!
Read more analysis by Rutashubanyuma Nestory
